We all want to know how to improve the number of conversions we get on our websites. A lot of the time, we try to do that by rearranging the layout or switch up page elements. Then we go to our dashboards, see if the number went up or down. You've probably spotted the flaw in this. This is circular reasoning, a change in customer behavior can't be proven by "looking back at data, trying to decide whether or not it was some sort of change that we made" As conversion expert, Matt Gershoff puts it.