COP30 in Belém delivered the most significant structural shift in carbon markets since Paris 2015. The voluntary carbon market as we knew it is over—replaced by a quasi-compliance system where CCP labels, Article 6 alignment, and removal permanence determine everything.

In this emergency briefing, Mahmoud breaks down:

→ Article 6.4's first methodology & what declining baselines mean for your projects

→ The Kyoto CDM phase-out timeline (2026 deadline is closer than you think)

→ Open Coalition launch: Brazil, EU, China, UK + 14 others merge compliance markets

→ ICVCM's REDD+ breakthrough (VM0048 Scenario 1 finally approved)

→ Brazil's ProFloresta+ $25M program setting price floors at $20-25/ton

→ Why the 381% removal premium is structural, not cyclical

MARKET INTELLIGENCE:

• High-quality ARR: $21-24/ton (CCP-eligible, scarce)

• Generic avoidance: <$4/ton (stranded assets)

• Engineered removals: $100+/ton (massive premiums)

Indonesia decoupled from NDCs (13.4B tonne target).

China ETS hits ¥66.9/ton after sectoral expansion.

EU opens 5% offset path for 2040 targets (starting 2036).

If your project isn't compliance-ready, you're holding stranded assets.

8 strategic actions for repositioning your pipeline before it's too late.

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