Deal volume is down 37% YoY, but data centers and retail are holding strong while office and multifamily slide. The 39-day federal shutdown is freezing $3.2B in HUD loans, and $58B in CRE debt comes due this quarter — a real test for refinancing risk.

In 60 seconds:

• Winners: Data centers + retail
• Losers: Office + multifamily
• Key watchpoints: loan maturities, Fed tone, and shutdown fallout

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