Latest updates and trends in the global canola market, with insights into key regions including Russia, China, India, Australia, and Ukraine from CropGPT

Russia: Rostov and Pskov Regions

• Rostov Region:
  • Rapeseed planting expanded by 22% in 2024, covering 28.6 thousand hectares.
  • Local challenges include climate impacts on crop heat intolerance and winter freeze vulnerability.
  • Despite a government export ban extended until 2024, local processing in Krasnodar mitigates the impact.
• Pskov Region:
  • An eight-fold increase in rapeseed yield over the last twenty years, revitalizing 200,000 hectares of unused land.
  • New processing facilities launched:
    • PskovAgroInvest LLC: 5,000 tons annual capacity.
    • Svoe in Velikiye Luki: 3,000 tons annual capacity.

China

• Intensified Production:
  • Promoting winter variant cultivation using idle winter land.
  • New "segmented harvesting" method: trimming plants when 80% yellow, drying on-field before threshing.
  • Boosts average yield by 30-50 kg per mu, enhancing net income by over 100 yuan per mu.
• National Efforts:
  • Aimed at reducing dependency on imports by cultivating more domestic crops.

India

• Projected Increase:
  • Rapeseed output expected to rise by 7.5% to 11.5 million tonnes in 2024.
  • Driven by historical highs in wintersown oilseed planting and a 7.4% increase in sown area.
• Weather Constraints:
  • Adverse weather conditions, including frost and heatwaves, constrain yields.
• Economic Importance:
  • Crucial for reducing dependency on expensive imported vegetable oils.

Australia

• Output Reduction:
  • Significant reduction in canola output due to persistent drought conditions, particularly in the western and southern regions.
  • Farmers are switching to wheat and barley, less reliant on early sowing.
  • Canola area projected to decrease by 6% to 3.1 million hectares.
  • Production potentially falling 5% from the previous year to about 5.4 million metric tons.
• Hope for Improvement:
  • Dependent on sufficient rainfall in the coming months.

Global Update on Ukraine

• Price Rise:
  • Significant price rise expected due to frost damage in May and an uptick in exchange quotations.
  • Tight competition between exporters and processors predicted.
  • Market shift driven by natural calamities and lower harvest projections, potentially driving prices over 500 euros per ton.