This episode provides a strategic update on the global cocoa market as of February 23, 2025.
Amid tightening inventories, slowing exports, and currency-driven volatility, cocoa prices continue to face significant upward pressure while market players adjust to evolving supply-demand dynamics.

Key Themes Discussed:

Ivory Coast Cocoa Export Trends

• Ivory Coast cocoa exports have slowed, recording 20% year-over-year growth, a notable decline from the 35% rise reported in December 2024.
• Since October, 1,340,000 metric tons of cocoa have been shipped, while global inventory tightening continues to support prices despite softening demand signals.

Weather Conditions and Yield Prospects

• Central regions in Ivory Coast have benefited from favorable rainfall, improving yield prospects for the upcoming mid-crop season.
• Nevertheless, dry conditions and persistent Harmattan winds remain a threat to cocoa tree health.
• Production forecasts for 2024–25 have been raised to 2.2 million metric tons, but weather-related risks continue to loom.

Ghana’s Cocoa Sector Challenges

• Ghana’s Cocoa Board revised its 2024–25 production estimate downward to 650,000 metric tons, down from 700,000 metric tons.
• This follows a 23-year low harvest in 2023–24 at just 425,000 metric tons, driven by severe weather and widespread crop disease.

Global Cocoa Market Volatility

• Strengthening of the British pound and persistent high cocoa prices have led manufacturers like Hershey and Mondelez to reformulate products and prepare for demand adjustments.
• The International Cocoa Organization has raised the global cocoa deficit forecast for 2023–24 to 478,000 metric tons — the largest supply gap in over six decades.

Cocoa Liquor Market Growth Outlook

• The cocoa liquor market is projected to expand from USD 23.4 billion in 2023 to USD 38.7 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 5.3%.
• North America’s demand surged by 30.2%, fueled by a growing appetite for premium, antioxidant-rich cocoa products across food, bakery, and cosmetics sectors.

Strategic Implications:

Ongoing Supply Tightness

• Adverse weather, crop diseases, and logistical challenges are expected to maintain upward pressure on cocoa prices throughout 2025.

Consumer Demand Shift Toward Premium Products

• Rising interest in premium cocoa applications continues to drive innovation and demand across multiple sectors.

Manufacturer Strategy Shifts

• Recipe modifications, cost management efforts, and cautious demand outlooks are becoming critical strategies for chocolate producers.

Macro-Economic Pressures

• Currency fluctuations, particularly in the British pound and U.S. dollar, are amplifying cocoa market volatility and influencing global trade flows.