Global Soybean Market Summary

• The U.S. is running a marketing year shipment deficit 20% below last year's pace, despite recent weekly export inspection figures that have doubled from prior readings. Domestic planting progress is ahead of the five-year average at 79% complete, offering some constructive near-term supply outlook, but the structural competitive challenge from Brazil continues to overshadow domestic fundamentals.
• Brazil's May exports are projected to reach 15.9 million metric tons, up 12.8% year on year, consolidating the country's position as the dominant global supplier. The volume reflects a sustained export strategy that is systematically displacing U.S.-origin soybeans across critical buying destinations and exerting consistent downward pressure on global trade prices.
• China's soybean stocks have risen above prior-year levels, underpinned by a high and consistent rate of imports. The elevated inventory position reduces urgency for near-term procurement, softening fundamental price support on the international market and creating scope for strategic buying rather than necessity-driven purchasing.
• Argentina has revised its 2025/26 production forecast upward to 50.1 million metric tons, supported by accelerated harvest progress. The upgrade adds further supply-side weight to a global market already well-supplied from Brazil and the U.S., increasing the probability of continued price weakness and reinforcing Argentina's role in international soybean supply chains.