Global Sunflower Market Weekly Summary

• Russia and Ukraine, the two dominant forces in global sunflower oil supply, are both navigating significant structural challenges this week, with geopolitical, environmental, and policy factors shaping the outlook in contrasting ways.
• Russia's sunflower oil exports to Iraq have staged a sharp recovery in 2026, reaching over 14,500 tons valued at nearly $19 million between January and May, compared to barely 200 tons in the same period of 2025. Despite the scale of this rebound, volumes remain well below the 2022 peak of approximately 60,000 tons, illustrating the volatility that has characterised this bilateral trade relationship. Unit prices have also declined markedly over the same period, from around $1,900 per ton in 2022 to approximately $1,300 per ton in 2026, likely reflecting changes in contract structures or product mix. Russia's agricultural trade with Iraq now extends across wheat, barley, millet, and other commodities, pointing to a broader deepening of the commercial relationship.
• In India, Russia has maintained its position as a leading sunflower oil supplier, exporting 565,200 tons between January and April 2026, a year-on-year increase that reinforces its strategic importance to the Indian market. On the production side, Russian sunflower sowing has exceeded targets, with 12.7 million hectares planted by June 2026 against a planned 12 million hectares, a 5% overshoot that points to strong potential output. However, export duties and domestic currency appreciation continue to constrain the commercial returns available on that production, limiting Russia's ability to fully convert its supply advantage into export market share.
• Ukraine's situation is considerably more severe. The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric plant has had a lasting and damaging effect on sunflower agriculture in the Kherson region. Pre-war yields of 2.2 to 2.6 tons per hectare have collapsed to between 0.2 and 0.7 tons per hectare in the most affected areas, a direct consequence of lost irrigation infrastructure compounded by drier conditions and degraded soil moisture levels. Rising production costs, strained farm finances, and heightened credit risk are the downstream effects, weakening Ukraine's competitive position in global sunflower trade.