In episode five of Back to Fundamentals, Energy Aspects’ Head of Research, Amrita Sen, is joined by Head of Oil Products, Robert Campbell, and Head of Geopolitics, Richard Bronze, to discuss what lies ahead for oil markets in 2021.

While demand may rise materially only by H2 21, the market will likely price in this development long before then. The first signs of this occurring are already visible, with Brent crude flirting with $60/bbl. Refining margins are also showing some signs of life—even if extremely modest—as conversion unit economics are strengthening.

Can this rally sustain? And will OPEC+ maintain its cohesion in the face of rising prices? Iran’s return in the second half of the year may cause markets to weaken momentarily, but the later that Iran supply returns, the easier it will be for the market to absorb it.