CubsPS+ - A North Side Numbers Game

CubsPS+ - A North Side Numbers Game

By Mike WallerSportsBaseball
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CubsPS+ - A North Side Numbers Game episodes

  • CubsPS+ Episode 70: Roster Musical Chairs - Position Players
    CubsPS+ Episode 70 — Roster Musical Chairs: Position Players

    Bellinger's signed. Spring training games are underway. And now the fun part begins — figuring out who actually makes this team. Today I go position by position through the 13 non-pitcher spots on the opening day roster, sorting the locks from the bubble guys and making the case for how I'd build this bench.

    This episode:

    • The Bellinger deal broken down — three years, $80M, two opt-outs, and why the structure is basically perfect for where the Cubs are
    • The 13-pitcher, 13-position-player math — and why those last three bench spots are the most interesting decisions of spring training
    • Locked in: Gomes/Amaya behind the plate, Hoerner, Swanson, Morel at third (fingers crossed), Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger, Busch, and Tauchman
    • First base: Busch gets the job, but Mervis, Garrett Cooper, and Dom Smith all hover — and Mervis is running out of time to get a real look
    • The Morel situation: what Craig Counsell actually said, why third base is make-or-break for roster flexibility, and what passable defense there actually buys this team
    • Nick Madrigal vs. Patrick Wisdom: why carrying both makes no sense, and why I'd probably go with neither
    • The case for Miles Mastrobuoni that I will keep making until someone listens
    • Canario's option year, Brennan Davis's health question, and why PCA is almost certainly starting in Triple-A
    • The CBT math: the Cubs are effectively already over the first tier and why that's the right call
    • How the deadline fits in — and why leaving $15-20M in wiggle room now is a feature, not a bug
      • 55 min
    • CubsPS+ Episode 69: Nothing Good Comes from Tom Ricketts Talking Money

      CubsPS+ Episode 69 — Nothing Good Comes from Tom Ricketts Talking Money

      Spring training games start Friday, Cody Bellinger is still unsigned, and Tom Ricketts opened his mouth about budgets again. This week I break down what Tom actually said, what it means, what he's gotten right as an owner, and what he keeps getting catastrophically wrong — then take stock of where this roster actually stands heading into camp.

      This episode:

      • The Ricketts record, honestly assessed — from saving Wrigley to "biblical losses," the full arc of what this ownership has and hasn't delivered
      • Tom's comments on the Diamondbacks, payroll, and "more revenue" — not wrong exactly, but never, ever helpful to say out loud
      • A full tour of Cubs payroll from 2014 to now — fifth in 2016, fourth in 2018, third in 2019, and what the numbers actually tell us about who's cheap and who isn't
      • The Scott Boras standoff explained — why Tom's hands-off ownership style and Boras's go-around-the-owner strategy are a perfect recipe for a stalemate
      • Where I think the Bellinger deal actually stands — and why "no formal offer" is not the same as no negotiation
      • Why baseball is trending younger and what that means for the mid-tier free agent market that keeps getting left behind
      • Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and the case against nine-year deals for guys who give you five innings
      • Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and the guys who probably aren't signing anywhere soon
      • What this team actually is right now — rotation optimism, bullpen depth, and why Morel at third changes everything
      • My current read on the NL Central: Cubs and Cardinals as co-favorites, Reds right behind, and a division that the healthiest team probably wins
        • 48 min
      • CubsPS+ Episode 68: Falling Down the Rabbit Hole with Michael Cotton

        CubsPS+ Episode 68 — Falling Down the Rabbit Hole with Michael Cotton

        Nothing's happening in the offseason and spring training isn't here yet — so I brought in reinforcements. Michael Cotton, co-host of the Sun Ranto Show and host of Baseball Rabbit Hole, joins me for a wide-ranging conversation about the soul of the game: old stats versus new, the artistry analytics is slowly erasing, and whether any of it matters when baseball is still just beautiful and stupid in equal measure.

        This episode:

        • Michael's origin story — 10 seasons on Sun Ranto, a Bears podcast he'd rather forget, and how a podcast from the Quad Cities kept him connected to the Cubs from Colorado
        • How watching 162 games a year changes you — why the 15% see the game differently, and why that's both a gift and a burden
        • Henry Chadwick: the journalist who invented the box score, the baseball guide, and — possibly — the K, and why his stats stuck for 150 years
        • WAR explained for the Cotton-brained among us — and why 48 wins is the floor, not the average
        • The old stats tell you what happened; the new stats try to explain why — and both matter
        • Javier Assad's Baseball Savant page is a puzzle, Kyle Hendricks' is a masterpiece, and what the difference tells us about contact-based pitching in the modern game
        • Why PCA's best plays might not look like plays at all — and what Darwin Barney and Jason Heyward have to do with it
        • Analytics as player development tool vs. analytics as player limiter — and where Michael draws the line
        • Joe Maddon, game seven, and the pull that still haunts us
        • Jed, Theo, and what actually changed when Craig Breslow came to town
          • 2 hr
        • CubsPS+ Episode 67: The Hazy Shade of Winter

          CubsPS+ Episode 67 — The Hazy Shade of Winter

          Pitchers and catchers are weeks away, and this roster still has more questions than answers. The Cubs have made real moves — Imanaga, Busch, Neris — but we're stuck in that hazy stretch where the big dominoes (Bellinger, Chapman) haven't fallen and the 40-man is a puzzle box waiting to blow up. This week I dig into what the opening day roster actually looks like depending on who Jed signs — and doesn't.

          This episode:

          • The Boras client logjam — Bellinger, Chapman, Snell, and Montgomery are all still out there, and what "no formal offer" actually means (and doesn't)
          • Why my position on Matt Chapman has softened — and exactly how many years I'd stomach
          • The 40-man crunch: who's on the roster bubble and why options matter more than most fans realize
          • Building out the bullpen — Alzolay, Neris, Merryweather, Smyly, Almonte, and why this group could actually be a strength
          • The fifth starter competition: Wicks, Wesneski, Assad, and the case for an open spring training battle
          • The position player mess at first, third, and center — how Bellinger vs. Chapman changes everything for Morel, Busch, Canario, and Tauchman
          • Canario and Tauchman: both out of options, both in limbo — one of them might not make it
          • Madrigal and Wisdom: why carrying both probably doesn't make sense, and what might have to give
          • Where this offseason grades out right now — and what it takes to get to a B+
            • 49 min
          • CubsPS+ Episode 66: Listener Mailbag & More!

            CubsPS+ Episode 66 — Listener Mailbag & More!

            66 episodes in, and this one's for the listeners. In honor of Sammy Sosa's 66 home runs in that legendary 1998 summer, I'm swinging for the fences on your questions — and you didn't disappoint. CubsCon is in the rearview, I'm finally over the plague I brought home from Chicago, and it's time to talk baseball.

            This episode:

            • The Christopher Morel situation — where he plays, what his 2024 stat line looks like, and why his player comps (Stanton, Luis Robert, Nolan Jones) should make you very excited
            • Would I trade Morel for Pete Alonso? No. Here's why — and it's not close
            • The Michael Busch trade broken down — what the Cubs gave up, what they got, and why trading from a position of strength is exactly what a deep farm system is for
            • Power vs. contact in a low-scoring game: Wisdom or Madrigal?
            • My two favorite prospects in the system right now: Cade Horton and Kevin Alcantara
            • Horton, Shaw, and Jefferson Rojas — who's "untouchable," what that actually means, and when we'll see them in Chicago
            • Drew Gray: the sleeper prospect nobody's talking about yet
            • The young arms: what to expect from Brown, Horn, Little, Palencia, Wesneski, and Wicks in 2024
            • NL Central win total predictions for all five teams — and my five-year Cubs forecast, year by year
              • 1 hr 19 min
            • CubsPS+ Episode 65: Shōta Imanaga & Waking Up for CubsCon

              CubsPS+ Episode 65 — Shōta Imanaga & Waking Up for CubsCon

              Jed finally did something — and he did a good thing. Shōta Imanaga is a Cub, and I think it's a steal. This week I break down why the deal works, what Imanaga actually brings to the rotation, and where the Cubs go from here heading into CubsCon.

              This episode:

              • Imanaga's pitch mix — why that 91-94 fastball plays like 96-97, and what the sweeper does to hitters
              • The contract structure unpacked — four years, $53M, with an option path to five years, $80M, and why it's a win in almost any outcome
              • Rotation math — where Imanaga slots in and what the fifth-starter battle looks like
              • The next moves: Bellinger, Hoskins, and why I'm skeptical of a long Matt Chapman commitment
              • Christopher Morel deserves a real shot at third — let's stop pretending otherwise
              • Bullpen depth, the Mervis situation, PCA vs. Canario in center, and a sleeper offseason move worth watching
              • CubsCon weekend — I'll be there, blizzard and all
                • 31 min
              • CubsPS+ Podcast Update

                The podcast has moved to the Bleacher Bunch Network, which can be found wherever you find your podcasts. Links below to Bleacher Bunch and CubsPS+ on Patreon:

                Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/cubspsplus

                Bleacher Bunch Network: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bleacher-bunch-network-a-chicago-cubs-podcast/id1462808218

                2 min
              • Episode 64 - Cub Silence, A Long Winter’s Nap

                We’ve talked about Shohei Ohtani and what the Dodgers are doing. We’ve talked about what the Cubs aren’t doing. We’ve talked about what the Cubs might look like if they actually do nothing. Here we are, stuck in Groundhog Day, waiting for news of the first big move. Why is the baseball offseason the way it is? Why don’t things move faster? This week I dig into those questions.

                Find CubsPS+ on the Bleacher Bunch Network: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bleacher-bunch-network-a-chicago-cubs-podcast/id1462808218

                44 min
              • Episode 63 - What If Nothing Happens?

                A week after Shohei Ohtani came off the board, the Cubs still have not made a single major league transaction this offseason. A lot of rumored and potential paths to a successful offseason remain available, but in this episode, I dig into the current roster and what this season could look like if the Cubs do nothing. How many wins could this team win? How might they replace lost production from 2023?

                53 min
              • Episode 62 - Platinum Arm Ohtani & What Comes Next (Correction)

                It’s been a wild week of fake reports, erroneous reports made in good faith and a whole lot of rumors as the world waited for Shohei to sign. Now he’s made up his mind and will be staying in LA. I talk about his contract and the what deferred money means in terms of luxury tax hit and then get into the “so what?” Of it all. What does this mean for the Cubs? Where do they pivot next. Let’s dive in.

                UPDATE: Jon Becker corrected the calculations he had put out yesterday before I recorded. I have provided the updated link below. Nutshell - deferring $400M of Ohtani’s contract would take LA’s CBT hit to as low as $42-ish million per year, not the $60M per year I cited in the pod. 

                Excellent Twitter thread about deferred comp in MLB from @jonbecker_ https://x.com/jonbecker_/status/1733855093462630748?s=61&t=1Aka_sJo8QXHplWFFqMVAg

                Great read on Collective Bargaining Tax (CBT) optimization (including explanation on deferred money) by @DrummeyDylan at Pitcher List https://t.co/r0wrSwMBoZ

                50 min

              About CubsPS+ - A North Side Numbers Game

              From the publisher's feed

              CubsPS+ is where Cubs baseball meets actual analysis. Host Mike Waller — lifelong fan, stat nerd, and the calm voice in a sea of ranters — breaks down what’s actually happening with the Cubs…