CutbackPredict Daily Edge Show

Built Monday, September 21 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $13343.82 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Monday, September 21. 0 games on the board, 0 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $13343.82 against a five thousand dollar start, $13343.82 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 27 of them green, realized +$6354.34. Nothing open at the moment — I don't pay vig to look busy.

Ticket 1 — TULN — Tulane @ Kansas St
Ticket 1, graded 1 star: I'm long TULN on Tulane @ Kansas St. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 8 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 14 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 1 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 16 cents. Risk on the ticket is $208.74, 1.6 percent of bankroll, 2982 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against TULN, or the contract trading through 2c before kickoff.. Why: CutbackPredict prices TULN at 20c; FPI has TULN at 15c; the number implies 1c; the market is paying 8c.

Ticket 2 — CMU — Wyoming @ C Michigan
Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long CMU on Wyoming @ C Michigan. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 51 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 56 cents, so that's 5 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 41 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 59 cents. Risk on the ticket is $227.20, 1.7 percent of bankroll, 2272 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against CMU, or the contract trading through 43c before kickoff.. Why: CutbackPredict prices CMU at 57c; FPI has CMU at 55c; the number implies 58c; the market is paying 53c; both reads agree tight.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. SDSU on James Madison @ San Diego St, in at 55 cents, lost for −$1199.55. UVA on West Virginia @ Virginia, in at 78 cents, lost for −$556.15. TULN on Tulane @ Kansas St, in at 8 cents, lost for −$208.60. CMU on Wyoming @ C Michigan, in at 51 cents, won for +$488.05. TTU on Houston @ Texas Tech, in at 73 cents, lost for −$443.04. That's 6 and 6 graded, −$571.20 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

The classroom — The vig and fees
Classroom time. Fees. On Kalshi you pay a small fee on every contract, and it eats hardest at the extremes — a contract at five or ninety-five cents barely moves, so the fee can erase the edge entirely. That's why the desk lives in the fifteen to eighty-five cent band. Chalk looks safe, but after fees it's a toll road.

The classroom — Closing line value
Classroom time. Closing line value. The sharpest scoreboard in this game isn't wins and losses — it's whether you consistently bought a contract for less than where it closed at kickoff. Beat the close over a season and you're beating the market. Everything I do is graded against that closing price, not against the final score.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 0 open tickets is $0.00, 0.0 percent of a $13343.82 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Rams @ Broncos, Sun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM EDT: LAR on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 62 cents against a market price of 55 cents, an edge of 6.6 cents. Entry 55, stop 47, target 64, 33 contracts for 267 dollars of risk. FPI has LAR at 61c, the number implies 63c. Chargers @ Bills, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM EDT: BUF on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 74 cents against a market price of 66 cents, an edge of 7.2 cents. Entry 66, stop 58, target 76, 33 contracts for 267 dollars of risk. FPI has BUF at 75c, the number implies 72c. Cardinals @ 49ers, Sun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM EDT: SF on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 88 cents against a market price of 79 cents, an edge of 9.4 cents. Entry 79, stop 71, target 90, 33 contracts for 267 dollars of risk. FPI has SF at 90c, the number implies 86c. Patriots @ Jaguars, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM EDT: JAX on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 63 cents against a market price of 57 cents, an edge of 6.1 cents. Entry 57, stop 49, target 65, 33 contracts for 267 dollars of risk. FPI has JAX at 63c, the number implies 63c. Texans @ Colts, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM EDT: HOU on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 62 cents against a market price of 55 cents, an edge of 6.8 cents. Entry 55, stop 47, target 64, 33 contracts for 267 dollars of risk. FPI has HOU at 61c, the number implies 63c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Sunday, September 20 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $13343.82 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Sunday, September 20. 0 games on the board, 0 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $13343.82 against a five thousand dollar start, $13343.82 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 27 of them green, realized +$6354.34. Nothing open at the moment — I don't pay vig to look busy.

Ticket 1 — TULN — Tulane @ Kansas St
Ticket 1, graded 1 star: I'm long TULN on Tulane @ Kansas St. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 8 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 14 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 1 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 16 cents. Risk on the ticket is $208.74, 1.6 percent of bankroll, 2982 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against TULN, or the contract trading through 2c before kickoff.. Why: CutbackPredict prices TULN at 20c; FPI has TULN at 15c; the number implies 1c; the market is paying 8c.

Ticket 2 — CMU — Wyoming @ C Michigan
Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long CMU on Wyoming @ C Michigan. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 51 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 56 cents, so that's 5 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 41 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 59 cents. Risk on the ticket is $227.20, 1.7 percent of bankroll, 2272 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against CMU, or the contract trading through 43c before kickoff.. Why: CutbackPredict prices CMU at 57c; FPI has CMU at 55c; the number implies 58c; the market is paying 53c; both reads agree tight.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. SDSU on James Madison @ San Diego St, in at 55 cents, lost for −$1199.55. UVA on West Virginia @ Virginia, in at 78 cents, lost for −$556.15. TULN on Tulane @ Kansas St, in at 8 cents, lost for −$208.60. CMU on Wyoming @ C Michigan, in at 51 cents, won for +$488.05. TTU on Houston @ Texas Tech, in at 73 cents, lost for −$443.04. That's 6 and 6 graded, −$571.20 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

The classroom — Position sizing
Classroom time. Position sizing. I risk one to two percent of the bankroll on any single ticket, and the size comes from the stop distance, not from confidence. Entry minus stop, divided into the risk dollars — that's the contract count. A bigger edge gets the same risk, never a bigger risk. Sizing is what keeps one bad Saturday from ending the season.

The classroom — Expected value
Classroom time. Expected value. Multiply your probability by what you win, subtract the other probability times what you lose — if that number is positive, it's a bet worth making; if it's negative, the price is wrong even if the pick feels right. You don't need to win most of your trades. You need the math on your side every single time.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 0 open tickets is $0.00, 0.0 percent of a $13343.82 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Colts @ Chiefs, Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM EDT: KC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 77 cents against a market price of 71 cents, an edge of 6.5 cents. Entry 71, stop 63, target 79, 45 contracts for 363 dollars of risk. FPI has KC at 75c, the number implies 80c. Chargers @ Bills, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM EDT: BUF on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 74 cents against a market price of 66 cents, an edge of 7.2 cents. Entry 66, stop 58, target 76, 33 contracts for 267 dollars of risk. FPI has BUF at 75c, the number implies 72c. Vikings @ Bears, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM EDT: CHI on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 70 cents against a market price of 64 cents, an edge of 6.2 cents. Entry 64, stop 56, target 72, 40 contracts for 328 dollars of risk. FPI has CHI at 68c, the number implies 72c. Raiders @ Chargers, Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM EDT: LAC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 84 cents against a market price of 71 cents, an edge of 12.6 cents. Entry 71, stop 63, target 86, 45 contracts for 364 dollars of risk. FPI has LAC at 79c, the number implies 88c. Texans @ Colts, Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM EDT: HOU on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 62 cents against a market price of 55 cents, an edge of 6.8 cents. Entry 55, stop 47, target 64, 33 contracts for 267 dollars of risk. FPI has HOU at 61c, the number implies 63c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Saturday, September 19 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $15995.57 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Saturday, September 19. 0 games on the board, 4 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $15995.57 against a five thousand dollar start, $11668.27 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 30 of them green, realized +$9609.16. 4 open, marked +$0.00 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — SDSU — James Madison @ San Diego St
Ticket 1, graded 3 stars: I'm long SDSU on James Madison @ San Diego St. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 55 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 66 cents, so that's 10 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 45 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 67 cents. Risk on the ticket is $218.10, 1.4 percent of bankroll, 2181 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 45c or if SDSU trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: CutbackPredict prices SDSU at 67c; the number implies 63c; the market is paying 55c.

Ticket 2 — UVA — West Virginia @ Virginia
Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long UVA on West Virginia @ Virginia. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 78 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 85 cents, so that's 7 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 68 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 90 cents. Risk on the ticket is $218.10, 1.4 percent of bankroll, 2181 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 68c or if UVA trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: CutbackPredict prices UVA at 83c; the number implies 90c; the market is paying 78c.

Ticket 3 — TULN — Tulane @ Kansas St
Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long TULN on Tulane @ Kansas St. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 8 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 14 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 1 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 16 cents. Risk on the ticket is $208.60, 1.3 percent of bankroll, 2980 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against TULN, or the contract trading through 2c before kickoff.. Why: CutbackPredict prices TULN at 20c; FPI has TULN at 15c; the number implies 1c; the market is paying 8c.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. TTU on Houston @ Texas Tech, in at 73 cents, lost for −$443.04. PITT on Syracuse @ Pitt, in at 78 cents, won for +$192.78. NMSU on New Mexico St @ Hawai'i, in at 5 cents, won for +$1189.52. UTAH on Arkansas @ Utah, in at 85 cents, won for +$321.15. OSU on Ohio State @ Texas, in at 32 cents, lost for −$685.12. That's 8 and 4 graded, +$2484.93 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

The classroom — Entry, stop, target
Classroom time. Mechanics of an actual trade. Every order I write has three prices before I send it: an entry — the most I'm willing to pay, a stop — the price where I admit I'm wrong and exit, and a target — the price where I take profit. Write all three first. If you can't name your stop, you don't have a trade, you have a hope.

The classroom — Limit orders, not market orders
Classroom time. Limit orders versus market orders. A market order takes whatever price is showing; a limit order sits at your price and waits. Prediction markets are thinner than stocks, so market orders slip. I work resting limit bids and let the price come to me — I'd rather miss a winner than overpay for one.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 4 open tickets is $871.80, 5.5 percent of a $15995.57 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Colts @ Chiefs, Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM EDT: KC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 77 cents against a market price of 71 cents, an edge of 6.5 cents. Entry 71, stop 63, target 79, 45 contracts for 363 dollars of risk. FPI has KC at 75c, the number implies 80c. Vikings @ Bears, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM EDT: CHI on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 70 cents against a market price of 64 cents, an edge of 6.2 cents. Entry 64, stop 56, target 72, 40 contracts for 328 dollars of risk. FPI has CHI at 68c, the number implies 72c. Raiders @ Chargers, Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM EDT: LAC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 84 cents against a market price of 71 cents, an edge of 12.6 cents. Entry 71, stop 63, target 86, 45 contracts for 364 dollars of risk. FPI has LAC at 79c, the number implies 88c. Browns @ Buccaneers, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM EDT: TB on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 83 cents against a market price of 77 cents, an edge of 6.1 cents. Entry 77, stop 69, target 85, 45 contracts for 363 dollars of risk. FPI has TB at 80c, the number implies 86c. Falcons @ Packers, Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET: Green Bay Packers on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 74 cents against a market price of 69 cents, an edge of 2.7 cents. Entry 69, stop 61, target 76, 39 contracts for 320 dollars of risk. FPI has GB at 69c, the number implies 80c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Friday, September 18 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $16379.43 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Friday, September 18. 0 games on the board, 5 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $16379.43 against a five thousand dollar start, $10452.75 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 31 of them green, realized +$10207.88. 5 open, marked +$0.00 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — SDSU — James Madison @ San Diego St
Ticket 1, graded 3 stars: I'm long SDSU on James Madison @ San Diego St. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 55 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 66 cents, so that's 10 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 45 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 67 cents. Risk on the ticket is $218.10, 1.3 percent of bankroll, 2181 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 45c or if SDSU trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: CutbackPredict prices SDSU at 67c; the number implies 63c; the market is paying 55c.

Ticket 2 — TTU — Houston @ Texas Tech
Ticket 2, graded 2 stars: I'm long TTU on Houston @ Texas Tech. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 73 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 82 cents, so that's 9 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 63 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 84 cents. Risk on the ticket is $227.20, 1.4 percent of bankroll, 2272 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against TTU, or the contract trading through 66c before kickoff.. Why: CutbackPredict prices TTU at 85c; FPI has TTU at 76c; the number implies 83c; the market is paying 74c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 3 — UVA — West Virginia @ Virginia
Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long UVA on West Virginia @ Virginia. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 78 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 85 cents, so that's 7 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 68 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 90 cents. Risk on the ticket is $218.10, 1.3 percent of bankroll, 2181 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 68c or if UVA trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: CutbackPredict prices UVA at 83c; the number implies 90c; the market is paying 78c.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. PITT on Syracuse @ Pitt, in at 78 cents, won for +$192.78. NMSU on New Mexico St @ Hawai'i, in at 5 cents, won for +$1189.52. UTAH on Arkansas @ Utah, in at 85 cents, won for +$321.15. OSU on Ohio State @ Texas, in at 32 cents, lost for −$685.12. TTU on Texas Tech @ Oregon St, in at 77 cents, won for +$486.68. That's 9 and 3 graded, +$3527.30 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

The classroom — Buying yes vs buying no
Classroom time. Today: buying yes versus buying no. You don't have to back a team — you can fade one. If a favorite is trading at eighty-two cents and you think that's rich, you buy the no at eighteen cents. Same game, same dollar payout, you're just taking the other chair. New traders only ever buy the side they like; pros trade whichever side is mispriced.

The classroom — The vig and fees
Classroom time. Fees. On Kalshi you pay a small fee on every contract, and it eats hardest at the extremes — a contract at five or ninety-five cents barely moves, so the fee can erase the edge entirely. That's why the desk lives in the fifteen to eighty-five cent band. Chalk looks safe, but after fees it's a toll road.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 5 open tickets is $1099.00, 6.7 percent of a $16379.43 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Colts @ Chiefs, Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM EDT: KC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 77 cents against a market price of 71 cents, an edge of 6.5 cents. Entry 71, stop 63, target 79, 45 contracts for 363 dollars of risk. FPI has KC at 75c, the number implies 80c. Raiders @ Chargers, Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM EDT: LAC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 84 cents against a market price of 71 cents, an edge of 12.6 cents. Entry 71, stop 63, target 86, 45 contracts for 364 dollars of risk. FPI has LAC at 79c, the number implies 88c. Browns @ Buccaneers, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM EDT: TB on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 83 cents against a market price of 77 cents, an edge of 6.1 cents. Entry 77, stop 69, target 85, 45 contracts for 363 dollars of risk. FPI has TB at 80c, the number implies 86c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Thursday, September 17 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $18194.88 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Thursday, September 17. 0 games on the board, 5 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $18194.88 against a five thousand dollar start, $12221.79 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 30 of them green, realized +$9896.19. 5 open, marked +$0.00 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — SDSU — James Madison @ San Diego St
Ticket 1, graded 3 stars: I'm long SDSU on James Madison @ San Diego St. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 55 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 66 cents, so that's 10 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 45 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 67 cents. Risk on the ticket is $218.10, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 2181 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 45c or if SDSU trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: CutbackPredict prices SDSU at 67c; the number implies 63c; the market is paying 55c.

Ticket 2 — TTU — Houston @ Texas Tech
Ticket 2, graded 2 stars: I'm long TTU on Houston @ Texas Tech. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 73 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 82 cents, so that's 9 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 63 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 84 cents. Risk on the ticket is $227.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 2272 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against TTU, or the contract trading through 66c before kickoff.. Why: CutbackPredict prices TTU at 85c; FPI has TTU at 76c; the number implies 83c; the market is paying 74c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 3 — UVA — West Virginia @ Virginia
Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long UVA on West Virginia @ Virginia. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 78 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 85 cents, so that's 7 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 68 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 90 cents. Risk on the ticket is $218.10, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 2181 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 68c or if UVA trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: CutbackPredict prices UVA at 83c; the number implies 90c; the market is paying 78c.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. NMSU on New Mexico St @ Hawai'i, in at 5 cents, won for +$1189.52. UTAH on Arkansas @ Utah, in at 85 cents, won for +$321.15. OSU on Ohio State @ Texas, in at 32 cents, lost for −$685.12. TTU on Texas Tech @ Oregon St, in at 77 cents, won for +$486.68. TULN on South Alabama @ Tulane, in at 89 cents, lost for −$294.52. That's 9 and 3 graded, +$4248.93 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

The classroom — Implied probability
Classroom time. Today's term is implied probability. A Kalshi contract pays one dollar if the event happens, zero if it doesn't — so a price of forty cents literally means the market thinks there's a forty percent chance. If your own number is fifty, and you can buy at forty, you're buying a dollar bill for forty cents of risk. That gap between your number and the price is the whole job.

The classroom — Position sizing
Classroom time. Position sizing. I risk one to two percent of the bankroll on any single ticket, and the size comes from the stop distance, not from confidence. Entry minus stop, divided into the risk dollars — that's the contract count. A bigger edge gets the same risk, never a bigger risk. Sizing is what keeps one bad Saturday from ending the season.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 5 open tickets is $1099.00, 6.0 percent of a $18194.88 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Colts @ Chiefs, Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM EDT: KC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 77 cents against a market price of 71 cents, an edge of 6.5 cents. Entry 71, stop 63, target 79, 45 contracts for 363 dollars of risk. FPI has KC at 75c, the number implies 80c. Raiders @ Chargers, Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM EDT: LAC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 84 cents against a market price of 71 cents, an edge of 12.6 cents. Entry 71, stop 63, target 86, 45 contracts for 364 dollars of risk. FPI has LAC at 79c, the number implies 88c. Browns @ Buccaneers, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM EDT: TB on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 83 cents against a market price of 77 cents, an edge of 6.1 cents. Entry 77, stop 69, target 85, 45 contracts for 363 dollars of risk. FPI has TB at 80c, the number implies 86c. Falcons @ Packers, Thu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ET: Green Bay Packers on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 74 cents against a market price of 69 cents, an edge of 1.2 cents. Entry 69, stop 61, target 76, 45 contracts for 364 dollars of risk. FPI has GB at 68c, the number implies 80c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Wednesday, September 16 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $18177.18 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Wednesday, September 16. 0 games on the board, 3 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $18177.18 against a five thousand dollar start, $12701.66 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 31 of them green, realized +$9880.47. 3 open, marked +$0.00 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — PITT — Syracuse @ Pitt
Ticket 1, graded 1 star: I'm long PITT on Syracuse @ Pitt. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 79 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 86 cents, so that's 7 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 69 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 88 cents. Risk on the ticket is $227.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 2272 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against PITT, or the contract trading through 71c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has PITT at 83c; the number implies 90c; the market is paying 79c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 2 — TTU — Houston @ Texas Tech
Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long TTU on Houston @ Texas Tech. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 73 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 81 cents, so that's 8 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 63 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 83 cents. Risk on the ticket is $227.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 2272 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against TTU, or the contract trading through 66c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has TTU at 76c; the number implies 86c; the market is paying 74c.

Ticket 3 — MIA — Miami @ Wake Forest
Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long MIA on Miami @ Wake Forest. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 89 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 95 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 79 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 97 cents. Risk on the ticket is $227.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 2272 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against MIA, or the contract trading through 81c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has MIA at 92c; the number implies 99c; the market is paying 91c; both reads agree tight.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. NMSU on New Mexico St @ Hawai'i, in at 5 cents, won for +$1189.52. UTAH on Arkansas @ Utah, in at 85 cents, won for +$321.15. OSU on Ohio State @ Texas, in at 32 cents, lost for −$685.12. TTU on Texas Tech @ Oregon St, in at 77 cents, won for +$486.68. TULN on South Alabama @ Tulane, in at 89 cents, lost for −$294.52. That's 9 and 3 graded, +$4248.93 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

The classroom — A pass is a position
Classroom time. The trade you'll never regret: the pass. Most of the board most days is efficiently priced, and the correct position is flat. Forcing action because you watched a game is how accounts bleed out by a thousand cuts. The desk takes zero when there's no edge — and on this show, the zero counts as a decision, not a failure.

The classroom — Entry, stop, target
Classroom time. Mechanics of an actual trade. Every order I write has three prices before I send it: an entry — the most I'm willing to pay, a stop — the price where I admit I'm wrong and exit, and a target — the price where I take profit. Write all three first. If you can't name your stop, you don't have a trade, you have a hope.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 3 open tickets is $681.60, 3.7 percent of a $18177.18 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Raiders @ Chargers, Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM EDT: LAC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 84 cents against a market price of 71 cents, an edge of 12.6 cents. Entry 71, stop 63, target 86, 45 contracts for 364 dollars of risk. FPI has LAC at 79c, the number implies 88c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Tuesday, September 15 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $18177.18 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Tuesday, September 15. 0 games on the board, 3 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $18177.18 against a five thousand dollar start, $12701.66 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 31 of them green, realized +$9880.47. 3 open, marked +$0.00 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — PITT — Syracuse @ Pitt
Ticket 1, graded 1 star: I'm long PITT on Syracuse @ Pitt. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 79 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 86 cents, so that's 7 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 69 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 88 cents. Risk on the ticket is $227.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 2272 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against PITT, or the contract trading through 71c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has PITT at 83c; the number implies 90c; the market is paying 79c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 2 — TTU — Houston @ Texas Tech
Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long TTU on Houston @ Texas Tech. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 73 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 81 cents, so that's 8 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 63 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 83 cents. Risk on the ticket is $227.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 2272 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against TTU, or the contract trading through 66c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has TTU at 76c; the number implies 86c; the market is paying 74c.

Ticket 3 — MIA — Miami @ Wake Forest
Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long MIA on Miami @ Wake Forest. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 89 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 95 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 79 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 97 cents. Risk on the ticket is $227.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 2272 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against MIA, or the contract trading through 81c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has MIA at 92c; the number implies 99c; the market is paying 91c; both reads agree tight.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. NMSU on New Mexico St @ Hawai'i, in at 5 cents, won for +$1189.52. UTAH on Arkansas @ Utah, in at 85 cents, won for +$321.15. OSU on Ohio State @ Texas, in at 32 cents, lost for −$685.12. TTU on Texas Tech @ Oregon St, in at 77 cents, won for +$486.68. TULN on South Alabama @ Tulane, in at 89 cents, lost for −$294.52. That's 9 and 3 graded, +$4248.93 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

Best bets — The bets posted on the board right now
These are the best bets posted on the board at LiveGridiron right now — same numbers you are looking at on the site, read out with the reasoning. North Texas Mean Green in North Texas @ Texas St: market is paying 42 cents, CutbackPredict fair value is 52 cents, so that is 11 cents of mispricing. Why: FPI has UNT at 70c, the number implies 35c, the market is paying 42c. Entry 42 cents, stop 34 cents, target 54 cents — about 1.6 to one. Size is 2272 contracts, $181.77 of risk. I am wrong if starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against UNT, or the contract trading through 34c before kickoff. Delaware Blue Hens in Coastal @ Delaware: market is paying 66 cents, CutbackPredict fair value is 75 cents, so that is 9 cents of mispricing. Why: FPI has DEL at 73c, the number implies 76c, the market is paying 66c, both reads agree tight. Entry 66 cents, stop 58 cents, target 77 cents — about 1.4 to one. Size is 2272 contracts, $181.77 of risk. I am wrong if starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against DEL, or the contract trading through 58c before kickoff. Vanderbilt Commodores in NC State @ Vanderbilt: market is paying 60 cents, CutbackPredict fair value is 68 cents, so that is 8 cents of mispricing. Why: FPI has VAN at 69c, the number implies 68c, the market is paying 60c, both reads agree tight. Entry 60 cents, stop 52 cents, target 70 cents — about 1.3 to one. Size is 2272 contracts, $181.77 of risk. I am wrong if starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against VAN, or the contract trading through 52c before kickoff. Central Michigan Chippewas in Wyoming @ C Michigan: market is paying 52 cents, CutbackPredict fair value is 56 cents, so that is 4 cents of mispricing. Why: FPI has CMU at 55c, the number implies 58c, the market is paying 52c, both reads agree tight. Entry 50 cents, stop 42 cents, target 58 cents — about 1.0 to one. Size is 2272 contracts, $181.77 of risk. I am wrong if starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against CMU, or the contract trading through 42c before kickoff.

Live odds — College football odds, live off the board
Line check — these are live prices as I am reading them, not this morning's screenshot. Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers: the line is PITT -10.5. Total at 51.5. Moneyline Pittsburgh Panthers minus 380. That prices Pittsburgh Panthers at 76 cents to win outright. My model has them 83 cents. Only 6 cents apart, inside my costs. Watching, not trading. Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon Deacons: the line is MIA -20.5. Total at 55.5. Moneyline Wake Forest Demon Deacons plus 950. That prices Wake Forest Demon Deacons at 9 cents to win outright. My model has them 8 cents. That line opened MIA -21.5 and has moved to MIA -20.5 today. Only 1 cents apart, inside my costs. Watching, not trading. Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red Raiders: the line is TTU -7.5. My model has them 76 cents. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Delaware Blue Hens: the line is DEL -5.5. Total at 57.5. Moneyline Delaware Blue Hens minus 218. That prices Delaware Blue Hens at 66 cents to win outright. My model has them 73 cents. That line opened DEL -4.5 and has moved to DEL -5.5 today. 8 cents of daylight — that clears my threshold and it is live for a ticket. Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks: the line is UGA -25.5. Total at 54.5. Moneyline Arkansas Razorbacks plus 1700. That prices Arkansas Razorbacks at 5 cents to win outright. My model has them 4 cents. That line opened UGA -24.5 and has moved to UGA -25.5 today. Only 1 cents apart, inside my costs. Watching, not trading. All of those prices are on the live odds page at LiveGridiron, refreshing as the books move.

The classroom — Kelly criterion
Classroom time. The Kelly criterion. It's the formula that tells you what fraction of the bankroll a given edge justifies. Full Kelly is aggressive, so the desk runs quarter Kelly — a quarter of what the math allows — which keeps the drawdowns survivable while still pressing real edges. Edge divided by the payoff odds, then take a quarter of it. That's the whole formula.

The classroom — Buying yes vs buying no
Classroom time. Today: buying yes versus buying no. You don't have to back a team — you can fade one. If a favorite is trading at eighty-two cents and you think that's rich, you buy the no at eighteen cents. Same game, same dollar payout, you're just taking the other chair. New traders only ever buy the side they like; pros trade whichever side is mispriced.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 3 open tickets is $681.60, 3.7 percent of a $18177.18 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Raiders @ Chargers, Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM EDT: LAC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 84 cents against a market price of 71 cents, an edge of 12.6 cents. Entry 71, stop 63, target 86, 45 contracts for 364 dollars of risk. FPI has LAC at 79c, the number implies 88c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Monday, September 14 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $18177.18 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Monday, September 14. 0 games on the board, 2 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $18177.18 against a five thousand dollar start, $14723.74 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 31 of them green, realized +$9880.47. 2 open, marked +$0.00 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — PITT — Syracuse @ Pitt
Ticket 1, graded 1 star: I'm long PITT on Syracuse @ Pitt. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 79 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 86 cents, so that's 7 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 69 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 88 cents. Risk on the ticket is $227.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 2272 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against PITT, or the contract trading through 71c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has PITT at 83c; the number implies 90c; the market is paying 79c; both reads agree tight.

Ticket 2 — TTU — Houston @ Texas Tech
Ticket 2, graded 1 star: I'm long TTU on Houston @ Texas Tech. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 73 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 81 cents, so that's 8 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 63 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 83 cents. Risk on the ticket is $227.20, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 2272 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against TTU, or the contract trading through 66c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has TTU at 76c; the number implies 86c; the market is paying 74c.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. NMSU on New Mexico St @ Hawai'i, in at 5 cents, won for +$1189.52. UTAH on Arkansas @ Utah, in at 85 cents, won for +$321.15. OSU on Ohio State @ Texas, in at 32 cents, lost for −$685.12. TTU on Texas Tech @ Oregon St, in at 77 cents, won for +$486.68. TULN on South Alabama @ Tulane, in at 89 cents, lost for −$294.52. That's 9 and 3 graded, +$4248.93 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

The classroom — Closing line value
Classroom time. Closing line value. The sharpest scoreboard in this game isn't wins and losses — it's whether you consistently bought a contract for less than where it closed at kickoff. Beat the close over a season and you're beating the market. Everything I do is graded against that closing price, not against the final score.

The classroom — Implied probability
Classroom time. Today's term is implied probability. A Kalshi contract pays one dollar if the event happens, zero if it doesn't — so a price of forty cents literally means the market thinks there's a forty percent chance. If your own number is fifty, and you can buy at forty, you're buying a dollar bill for forty cents of risk. That gap between your number and the price is the whole job.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 2 open tickets is $454.40, 2.5 percent of a $18177.18 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Raiders @ Chargers, Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM EDT: LAC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 84 cents against a market price of 71 cents, an edge of 12.6 cents. Entry 71, stop 63, target 86, 45 contracts for 364 dollars of risk. FPI has LAC at 79c, the number implies 88c. Broncos @ Chiefs, Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM EDT: KC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 62 cents against a market price of 56 cents, an edge of 5.5 cents. Entry 56, stop 48, target 64, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has KC at 59c, the number implies 65c. Packers @ Jets, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET: Green Bay Packers on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 72 cents against a market price of 66 cents, an edge of 6.8 cents. Entry 66, stop 58, target 74, 45 contracts for 364 dollars of risk. FPI has GB at 72c, the number implies 72c. Jaguars @ Broncos, Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET: Denver Broncos on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 60 cents against a market price of 55 cents, an edge of 3.2 cents. Entry 55, stop 47, target 62, 45 contracts for 364 dollars of risk. FPI has DEN at 56c, the number implies 63c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Sunday, September 13 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $18177.18 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Sunday, September 13. 0 games on the board, 0 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $18177.18 against a five thousand dollar start, $18177.18 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 31 of them green, realized +$9880.47. Nothing open at the moment — I don't pay vig to look busy.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. NMSU on New Mexico St @ Hawai'i, in at 5 cents, won for +$1189.52. UTAH on Arkansas @ Utah, in at 85 cents, won for +$321.15. OSU on Ohio State @ Texas, in at 32 cents, lost for −$685.12. TTU on Texas Tech @ Oregon St, in at 77 cents, won for +$486.68. TULN on South Alabama @ Tulane, in at 89 cents, lost for −$294.52. That's 9 and 3 graded, +$4248.93 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

The classroom — Expected value
Classroom time. Expected value. Multiply your probability by what you win, subtract the other probability times what you lose — if that number is positive, it's a bet worth making; if it's negative, the price is wrong even if the pick feels right. You don't need to win most of your trades. You need the math on your side every single time.

The classroom — A pass is a position
Classroom time. The trade you'll never regret: the pass. Most of the board most days is efficiently priced, and the correct position is flat. Forcing action because you watched a game is how accounts bleed out by a thousand cuts. The desk takes zero when there's no edge — and on this show, the zero counts as a decision, not a failure.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Trade idea — No trade — the standing plan
The trade idea today is the discipline. Nothing on the live board prints a gap I will pay for, so the desk stays flat and the plan is conditional: I bid only when a contract in the fifteen to eighty-five cent band sits at least eight cents under CutbackPredict fair value, I risk one percent of a $18177.18 bankroll, roughly $181.77, I stop eight cents below entry, and I target fair value. If none of that triggers before kickoff, I take the zero. A pass is a position.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 0 open tickets is $0.00, 0.0 percent of a $18177.18 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Commanders @ Eagles, Sun, 4:25 PM EDT: PHI on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 71 cents against a market price of 66 cents, an edge of 5.7 cents. Entry 66, stop 58, target 73, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has PHI at 67c, the number implies 76c. Bills @ Texans, Sun, 1:00 PM EDT: BUF on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 56 cents against a market price of 50 cents, an edge of 6.4 cents. Entry 50, stop 42, target 58, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has BUF at 54c, the number implies 58c. Broncos @ Chiefs, Mon, 8:15 PM EDT: KC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 62 cents against a market price of 56 cents, an edge of 5.5 cents. Entry 56, stop 48, target 64, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has KC at 59c, the number implies 65c. Panthers @ Falcons, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET: Atlanta Falcons on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 58 cents against a market price of 52 cents, an edge of 7.0 cents. Entry 52, stop 44, target 60, 45 contracts for 364 dollars of risk. FPI has ATL at 59c, the number implies 58c. Vikings @ Bears, Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET: Chicago Bears on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 63 cents against a market price of 57 cents, an edge of 5.8 cents. Entry 57, stop 49, target 65, 45 contracts for 364 dollars of risk. FPI has CHI at 61c, the number implies 65c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.

Built Saturday, September 12 from live ESPN and Kalshi data plus The Oracle's $6717.58 live book.

Game data, charts and the live book for this episode.

Cold open — The Edge Show is on
The Oracle. Saturday, September 12. 0 games on the board, 3 live tickets, every number straight off my CutbackPredict model. Let's work.

The board — Today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted right now, so there is nothing on the board to price this segment.

Analysis — The read on today's slate
The scoreboard feed has no upcoming games posted, so there is no live slate to read right now. Kalshi has not posted prices on these boards yet, so pricing work waits for the market to open. Nothing on the board separates from the market by enough to matter, which is its own read: the market is efficient today.

The book — Bankroll and P&L
The book. Equity is $6717.58 against a five thousand dollar start, $5722.87 of that sitting in cash. 40 closed tickets, 32 of them green, realized +$915.14. 3 open, marked +$0.00 on current prices.

Ticket 1 — WOF — Wofford @ Kent State
Ticket 1, graded 5 stars: I'm long WOF on Wofford @ Kent State. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 18 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 33 cents, so that's 15 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 8 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 35 cents. Risk on the ticket is $81.70, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 817 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against WOF, or the contract trading through 10c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has WOF at 33c; the market is paying 18c.

Ticket 2 — SYR — California @ Syracuse
Ticket 2, graded 4 stars: I'm long SYR on California @ Syracuse. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 61 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 74 cents, so that's 13 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 51 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 73 cents. Risk on the ticket is $80.10, 1.2 percent of bankroll, 801 contracts. Invalidation: Out at 51c or if SYR trails by more than a score into the fourth.. Why: FPI has SYR at 80c; the number implies 68c; the market is paying 62c.

Ticket 3 — WAKE — Wake Forest @ Purdue
Ticket 3, graded 1 star: I'm long WAKE on Wake Forest @ Purdue. This is a filled ticket in the book, not a hypothetical. Entry was 57 cents. My CutbackPredict fair value is 63 cents, so that's 6 cents of edge at the trigger. Stop is 47 cents — I'm out, no debate. Target is 65 cents. Risk on the ticket is $0.70, 0.0 percent of bankroll, 7 contracts. Invalidation: Starting quarterback scratch, a line move of more than two points against WAKE, or the contract trading through 49c before kickoff.. Why: FPI has WAKE at 60c; the number implies 65c; the market is paying 57c; both reads agree tight.

Scoreboard — How the last tickets settled
Grading the book. BC on Rutgers @ Boston College, in at 58 cents, won for +$161.03. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$244.20. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$243.21. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$2.31. TA&M on Arizona St @ Texas A&M, in at 83 cents, lost for −$2.31. That's 1 and 11 graded, −$339.19 realized — every one a real fill, not a highlight reel.

The classroom — Limit orders, not market orders
Classroom time. Limit orders versus market orders. A market order takes whatever price is showing; a limit order sits at your price and waits. Prediction markets are thinner than stocks, so market orders slip. I work resting limit bids and let the price come to me — I'd rather miss a winner than overpay for one.

The classroom — Kelly criterion
Classroom time. The Kelly criterion. It's the formula that tells you what fraction of the bankroll a given edge justifies. Full Kelly is aggressive, so the desk runs quarter Kelly — a quarter of what the math allows — which keeps the drawdowns survivable while still pressing real edges. Edge divided by the payoff odds, then take a quarter of it. That's the whole formula.

Sponsored by — Powered by CutbackPredict.com
Quick word on how I price all of this. Every fair value you hear on this show comes straight off the analytics at CutbackPredict.com — that's the model scanning the full college football board against live prediction-market prices, all day. If you're watching on the live stream page, the CutbackPredict buttons are right there on the main page. Click through, run the numbers on any game we're talking about, and see the same edge I'm seeing before the market moves. CutbackPredict.com.

Risk — Exposure and sizing
Risk plan. Total capital at risk across 3 open tickets is $218.30, 3.2 percent of a $6717.58 bankroll. Quarter-Kelly on the model edge, hard cap two percent on any single ticket, and every stop is a resting order, not a feeling.

NFL — Pro slate reads
Now the pro side. Alongside the college board I run a private N F L desk for a small group of clients, and here is what the model likes on this week's slate. Commanders @ Eagles, Sun, 4:25 PM EDT: PHI on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 71 cents against a market price of 66 cents, an edge of 5.7 cents. Entry 66, stop 58, target 73, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has PHI at 67c, the number implies 76c. Bills @ Texans, Sun, 1:00 PM EDT: BUF on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 56 cents against a market price of 50 cents, an edge of 6.4 cents. Entry 50, stop 42, target 58, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has BUF at 54c, the number implies 58c. Broncos @ Chiefs, Mon, 8:15 PM EDT: KC on the moneyline. CutbackPredict fair value 62 cents against a market price of 56 cents, an edge of 5.5 cents. Entry 56, stop 48, target 64, 14 contracts for 117 dollars of risk. FPI has KC at 59c, the number implies 65c. To be clear on the bookkeeping: N F L results live on their own page and are never blended into the college football profit and loss on the main board. Two books, two ledgers, both open for anybody to check.

Sign-off — That's the tape
That's the tape. Every price, record and line in this episode came off the live feeds, and every fair value came off CutbackPredict.com. Before you go — the CutbackPredict call-to-action buttons are right on the live stream main page; click through and run today's board yourself. This is a public practice bankroll and it's educational, not advice. The Oracle, out.