Alex here.

This is Lex Reg Pulse Daily for Wednesday, May 13, 2026.

Kevin Warsh is confirmed to the Federal Reserve Board, and the chair vote is expected today.

That makes the Powell transition a matter of hours.

Warsh inherits a bond market under genuine pressure: the 30-year Treasury yield is above five percent, and fed funds futures are pricing a thirty-one percent probability of a rate hike this year.

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have both pushed their first cut forecast to December.

Banks that have not refreshed asset-liability management and net interest margin sensitivity analysis against a higher-for-longer or hike scenario should do so before Warsh's first public appearance as chair.

Thursday brings the Senate Banking Committee markup of the CLARITY Act — the stablecoin framework bill — and the yield question is the sharpest unresolved issue.

The updated three-hundred-and-nine-page draft includes a Section 404 provision that purports to ban stablecoin yield.

Industry analysis of the text finds the restriction contains structural exceptions that effectively preserve the mechanism.

The American Bankers Association has escalated its opposition to CEO-level Senate lobbying.

If the yield restriction passes with those loopholes intact, non-bank stablecoin issuers retain the ability to offer yield-bearing products that banks cannot legally match on deposit accounts.

Supervisory jurisdiction — whether the FDIC or OCC takes the lead — is also unresolved in the current text.

Both variables remain live going into Thursday.

JPMorgan is not waiting for the legislation to settle.

The Financial Times reports the bank is launching a tokenized money market fund targeting stablecoin issuers, positioning its blockchain infrastructure as yield-bearing collateral management for the stablecoin ecosystem.

JPMorgan is also expanding its Chase consumer bank into Germany, nearly five years after its UK digital banking launch.

These are concurrent competitive moves, not sequential ones.

On the regulatory perimeter: the Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a capital comparability determination for French-domiciled nonbank swap dealers, effective May 12.

Eligible dealers registered with the CFTC may now satisfy capital requirements under EU Investment Firm Regulation standards rather than duplicative CFTC requirements.

Dealers with French-domiciled entities should review the comparability order's conditions and ongoing reporting obligations.

The determination may template future relief for other EU member states.

Separately, the CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Sixth Circuit in Kalshi versus Ohio, asserting federal preemption over prediction market regulation — a signal the agency will actively defend its jurisdictional perimeter against state regulators.

Banks and fintechs evaluating event contract product strategies should note the filing.

The Federal Reserve's Center for Microeconomic Data reports approximately three-point-six million borrowers entered student loan default during the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026, following the end of the pandemic payment pause.

Defaults are concentrated in Southern states and the thirty-five-to-fifty age cohort.

A second wave is possible: seven million borrowers in the SAVE plan forbearance are approaching their nine-month repayment mark.

Banks with consumer credit exposure in affected geographies should verify reserve methodologies reflect both the current default trajectory and the potential second wave.

Two enforcement actions were lifted: the Federal Reserve terminated standing enforcement actions against F&M and Thread Bancorp, per today's agency enforcement release.

One deadline requiring immediate attention: the Financial Stability Oversight Council comment deadline on nonbank financial company designation is Wednesday, May 14.

Banks with affiliated nonbank entities should confirm submissions are filed today.

Finally, a large financial services delegation — including executives from Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, BlackRock, and Blackstone — is en route to Beijing for a summit with Chinese leadership.

Any tariff framework signals from that meeting carry direct implications for dollar-denominated clearing and trade credit exposure.

Banks with material Asia Pacific trade finance positions should have scenario parameters current before markets open Thursday.

For the full analysis, check your Lex Reg Pulse daily briefing in your inbox, or catch Lex Reg Pulse Weekly every Sunday.

I'm Alex.

This has been Lex Reg Pulse Daily.

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