Ever wondered if Hollywood’s magic is just smoke and mirrors, or if there’s actually some cold, hard data behind those blockbuster hits? I sat down with Stephen Follows, the film data analyst who’s basically Indiana Jones, but instead of chasing ancient artifacts, he’s digging up the buried truths of the movie industry. We’re talking about everything from Oscar speech patterns to why producer experience might be as useful as a screen door on a submarine. If you’ve ever wondered if the film industry runs on spreadsheets or gut feelings, you’re in for a treat. Stephen’s journey is a fascinating blend of film school ambitions, Guinness World Records projects, and a relentless pursuit of the hidden patterns behind Hollywood’s stories.

From Film School to Data Nerd: A Journey of Discovery 🤓

Stephen’s career path took an unexpected turn from aspiring filmmaker to data aficionado. He candidly shared how he felt a lack of intellectual engagement during his early film school days, a stark contrast to the stimulating world of data analysis.

I was just not using my brain.

This started his journey into more analytical pursuits. While others suggested a path in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics (PPE), with film as a side hobby, Stephen plunged directly into the film industry, establishing a production company and crafting advertisements, including work for non-profits. However, the allure of numbers and logical inquiry was undeniable.

He recounted how, two decades into his film career, he realized he was missing the critical thinking aspect. “Twenty years ago, as I got into film, I realized I wasn’t doing any thinking,” he explained. “So, I started doing the numbers for films for my friends.” This move eventually led to a collaboration with Guinness World Records. Stephen’s initial expectation was that film studios would be heavily reliant on data and spreadsheets, but he quickly discovered that most industry decisions were surprisingly intuitive, rather than data-driven.

In the first 10 years of doing numbers work, I thought I’d see people at studios using spreadsheets and doing data. But most decisions are not data-driven.

Excel, AI, and the Oscars: A Technological Toolkit 🏆

Stephen’s approach to data analysis is a blend of Excel’s robust functionality and the burgeoning power of AI, a skill set he’s honed through self-learning. Despite identifying as dyslexic, which posed challenges with traditional coding, he’s leveraged his strong logical abilities to navigate these tools effectively. “I’m good at logic but dyslexic, so I can’t code,” he clarified. Before AI became mainstream, he relied on online tutorials to enhance his Excel proficiency. His early exposure to AI, through a ChatGPT-assisted scriptwriting project, revealed its potential to bridge gaps in his data knowledge.

I realized I could use AI to fill in the gaps in my knowledge about data. I’ve increased my output 20 times. I can study all films and not just a subset of films.

His Oscars blog post titled Was Harvey Weinstein thanked more often than God at the Oscars? analyzed a dataset we don’t normally come across every day: Oscar speeches. It involved analyzing 2,000 acceptance speeches and highlighted the industry’s focus on storytelling, even in its own narratives.

The film industry is all about telling stories about the stories they are telling.

He faced challenges like data cleaning in Excel and addressing AI’s limitations in interpreting complex phrases. For example, rather than asking AI to count, he refined his queries to extract specific information, such as who winners thanked. “Instead of asking AI any counting questions, I would ask AI to give me who the winner was thanking,” he explained. He also talked about the limitations of excel when dealing with large text data. “If text is too long, then using Excel is not that great. I then have to split stuff into multiple rows,” Stephen said. In the blog post, you’ll come across very basic bar charts that tell an interesting story about how the speeches have evolved over time.

Source: stephenfollows.comThe Myth of Producer Experience: Unraveling Industry Assumptions 🤯

One of Stephen’s most compelling projects involved examining the impact of producer experience at the American Film Market (AFM). He and his co-author, Bruce Nash, hypothesized that industry success was more about the individuals than the projects themselves. However, their analysis revealed a negative correlation between producer experience and future financial success, challenging conventional wisdom. “Negative correlation – Pearson correlation,” Stephen revealed.

Turns out your experience as a producer means nothing.

I’ve never heard of the Pearson correlation so had to look it up:

In statistics, the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC)[a] is a correlation coefficient that measures linear correlation between two sets of data. It is the ratio between the covariance of two variables and the product of their standard deviations; thus, it is essentially a normalized measurement of the covariance, such that the result always has a value between −1 and 1. – Wikipedia

This led to a discussion on the lack of stringent feedback loops in the film industry, where failures don’t necessarily impede future opportunities. “If your film fails, they don’t take away your license,” he explained. “The only people who are really invested in the process are the investors themselves.” This insight, which resonated strongly with investors, contributed to the article’s unexpected success.

Stephen’s Advice: Carve Out a Niche! 🎯

For those looking to enter the field of film data analysis, Stephen’s advice is clear: specialize. He highlighted the abundance of available film data and suggested creating a niche-focused Substack to share insights. “What’s great about the film industry is that there are so many data sets out there,” he said. “I would start a Substack and go niche on something and share it with people.” This approach allows for brand building and attracts the attention of relevant industry professionals.

Currently, Stephen is involved in a project focusing on sci-fi films for Guinness and has also launched The Horror Movie Report, offering access to his data spreadsheets.

Source: horrormoviereport.comOther Podcasts & Blog Posts

No other podcasts or blog posts mentioned in this episode!

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