In this enlightening episode, we are joined by Dr. Felsche who explores the pressing issue of prolonged heat periods that have become a prominent feature of European climate. Despite their recurrence, knowledge about the dominant spatial patterns of heatwaves and their impact on moisture-related processes remains sparse. Dr. Felsche discusses how gaining insights into these patterns could significantly improve heatwave and drought prediction, and thus lead to effective mitigation strategies.

He describes how they used hierarchical agglomerative clustering to determine nine dominant spatial heatwave patterns based on a 50-member regional climate model (Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5, CRCM5-LE). Interestingly, these patterns align well with clusters derived from an observational dataset (E-OBS) and with records of extreme historical heatwave events.

Dr. Felsche then delves into the intricate relationship between the occurrence of heatwaves and the soil moisture deficit present both before and after these events. Discover how negative soil moisture anomalies in the preceding winter/spring can act as a predictor for heatwaves in Southern Europe, and how North Europe exhibits a negative correlation between the number of heatwave days in summer and autumn soil moisture content.

Join us as we unlock crucial understanding about the spatial patterns and environmental effects of heatwaves.

Heatwaves, European climate, Spatial patterns, Moisture-related processes, Hierarchical agglomerative clustering, Regional climate model, CRCM5-LE, E-OBS, Soil moisture deficit, Drought prediction, Climate mitigation strategies.

Felsche, E., Böhnisch, A. & Ludwig, R. Inter-seasonal connection of typical European heatwave patterns to soil moisture. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6, 1 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00330-5