In this episode, Ivan Illan, AIF, CFS, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM shares the US employment chnages underway. Demographics and changing company financials are driving seismic shifts in how the US labor force experiences employment opportunities.

For more research highlights, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog

Copyright © 2025, AWAIM®

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Even though Trump's tariffs on China are meant to place pain and pressure on their economy, it appears that China is navigating US tariffs deftly. China's exports to other regions around the world have markedly increased, which has effectively offset the huge exports declines to the US.

For more research highlights, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog

Copyright © 2025, AWAIM®

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, discusses the historical relationship dynamic demonstrated by a falling US Dollar value and the resulting impact on U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets. Specifically, he focuses on the decade from 2005 to 2015, which was marked by the Great Financial Crisis and a USD value that oscillated wildly from -15% to +19%.

For details on the Research Highlight discusseed in this podcast visit, https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-03-26-2025

For more general information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright ©2025, AWAIM®

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, AWAIM was a special guest for the full hour on The Bruce Cook Conversation. Ivan discussed all things economics with Bruce. This is the first segment of four from that radio interview.

Original air date: March 8, 2025 at 8PM PT.

For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright ©2025, AWAIM®

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

Founder & CIO at AWAIM, Ivan Illan, joins California Senator Josh Newman on The Conversation with Bruce Cook discussing the condition of California's and the U.S. economy including jobs, deficits, and education.

(Original Air Date: October 13, 2024 at 6PM PT on AM830 KLAA)

For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

In preparing for my September 2024 Forbes article, I stumbled upon a shocking set of nearly identical, devastating economic statistics regarding the U.S. economy.

Graphs and data referenced in this episode comparing the periods of 1975 to 1980 versus 2019 to 2024 can be found at: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-09-04-2024

For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®

Investment advisory services offered through Aligne Wealth Advisors Investment Management (AWAIM®), an SEC registered investment adviser. SEC registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. AWAIM may discuss and display, charts, graphs, formulas which are not intended to be used by themselves to determine which securities to buy or sell, or when to buy or sell them. Such charts and graphs offer limited information and should not be used on their own to make investment decisions.

The opinions expressed herein are those of certain AWAIM personnel and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to revision due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of author, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.

AWAIM believes that the content provided by third parties and/or linked content is reasonably reliable and does not contain untrue statements of material fact or materially misleading information. This third-party content may be dated.

As discussed in detail last summer (see Research Highlights and Forbes article), comparing the Earnings Yield on stocks (using the S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Earnings Yield [CAEY]) to the Risk-Free Yields on U.S. Treasury Bonds can have an elucidating effect on an investor's favor towards equities or away from them.

Recall that Earnings Yield is equal to Earnings Per Share divided by its Stock Share Price. By simply inverting the Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio, you attain the Earnings Yield, which standardizes a stock's attractiveness as a cash flow instrument (typically stocks are bought for capital growth or dividend yield or some combination thereof) relative to other cash flows instruments (typically bonds for fixed income purposes).

Updated Research Highlight with data referenced in this episode found at: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-08-07-2024

Copyright © 2024 Ivan Illan, AWAIM®

In this month's episode, Ivan Illan, Founder & CIO at AWAIM®, explores the dichotomy of two segments of the capital markets - U.S. high yield bonds and U.S. small cap stocks. Both of these segments are predominantly charaterized by below investment grade credit ratings and typically demonstrate high price correlations. However, the past few years have not held this relationship. Ivan examines what may be driving this valuation differential, and what that may mean for risk assessment on a forward-looking basis.

For more information on this subject, please visit the charts referenced in this episode at https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-07-03-2024

Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®

The past few days have been hard on A.I. stocks, which until now have been driven higher and higher by the widespread A.I. euphoria. In this episode, I discuss a recent Working Paper (published May 2024) from the National Bureau of Economic Research that shares a more modest projection on the impact of A.I. in total factor productivity over the next 10 years.

For more information on this Working Paper, please visit NBER at: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32487

For more information on AWAIM®, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/

Copyright © 2024, AWAIM®

For roughly two years, the U.S. economy has been undermined by a challenging dynamic - a yield curve inversion. Not to be ignored, when short-term interest rates are much higher that long-term interest rates, investor and lender behavior modulates accordingly. If this dynamic persists too long, unintended consequences become manifest across marketplace participants.

To view the companion chart to this episode, please visit: alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-05-01-2024

For more information on our economic outlook or to submit your questions, please visit: alignewealth.com

Copyright ©2024, AWAIM®. All rights reserved.