South Africa faces a stark reality: failure to take urgent action to address the impending 'gas cliff' will result in economic regression, Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has warned.

"The gas cliff is not a distant event. It is imminent. But it is not inevitable. We have the analytical tools, institutional memory and public-private platforms to act. What we now require is resolve, coordination and energy," he told key industry stakeholders at the Natural Gas Symposium, in Johannesburg, on May 7.

Ramokgopa advocated for gas to be placed at the forefront of industrial revitalisation and energy resilience, and to advance a model of gas development that is sovereign, inclusive and environmentally responsible.

"South Africa stands at a pivotal crossroads. We are emerging from a decade in which energy insecurity constrained economic performance and undermined public confidence. Yet, we are now entering a new phase, one that requires a profound recalibration of our energy system, institutions and investment architecture."

"The gas economy, still in its formative stages, holds promise, but also presents constraints and demands urgent decisions. Natural gas is often described as a transition fuel.

"But for us, it is not merely a bridge. It is a pillar in a diversified and pragmatic approach to energy planning, particularly in the context of industrialisation, job creation and spatial economic transformation," Ramokgopa said.

He pointed out how the geopolitics of natural gas have shifted in the past two years.

Following the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global gas markets experienced a highly volatile and uncertain period, as European countries scrambled to reconfigure supply chains, moving away from Russian pipeline gas towards global liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets.

This caused price spikes, shifts in supply routes and new diplomatic alignments.

"This episode laid bare a fundamental lesson: energy security is national security. No country can afford to leave the reliability, affordability and resilience of its energy systems solely to market forces or external suppliers.

"The weaponisation of gas through price manipulation, supply disruptions and political leverage is not a theoretical risk. It is a lived reality in today's multipolar world," Ramakgopa said.

He said this was especially relevant for developing economies such as South Africa, where dependence on a narrow supplier base could render entire industries vulnerable.

Ramakgopa pointed out that South Africa imports about 160 PJ/y of natural gas from Mozambique, representing more than 85% of the country's total consumption. Sasol, the largest domestic user, consumes about 125 PJ/y, creating more than 30 000 direct jobs and contributing about 5% to GDP.

However, the Pande and Temane gasfields are projected to decline between 2026 and 2028. Ramakgopa said this anticipated gas cliff was a significant threat to the economy that demanded a coordinated and forward-looking response.

"Gas is not simply a commodity. It is a vector of industrial capability, spatial integration and economic power. Around the world, countries are reconfiguring their gas strategies, not just around cost and supply, but around sovereignty, localisation and geopolitical influence.

"For South Africa, this presents both risk and opportunity. On the one hand, we are currently exposed, dependent on a single supplier, with limited infrastructure and a small domestic market. On the other, we are strategically located, relatively stable and endowed with underexplored petroleum potential.

"Our political economy must respond by crafting a developmental gas strategy - one that integrates domestic production, regional diplomacy, infrastructure, finance, and market design. It must be grounded in public value, not just private returns," Ramokgopa said.

He pointed out that, historically, South Africa's gas sector was shaped by vertically integrated operations, notably Sasol, which has...