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DHUnplugged #784: Auld Lang Xiety
Looking at a weird GDP data point.
Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks.
Gold and Silver – WOW!
Closing out the year – a good one too!
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants!
- Lots to be excited about and anxious too
- Looking at a weird GDP data point
- Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks
Markets
- Gold and Silver - WOW!
- Closing out the year - a good one too!
- Buyers are still hot to buy any dip
- "Diet" pills coming
Bitters Making Progress
- Chocolate
-Dark Cherry
-Infusions
- https://highdesertbotanicals.com
NYE Celebration
- Cities across America ring in the new year by dropping unexpected objects:
- Amelia Island, FL drops a giant shrimp.
- Nashville drops a 400lb musical note with 28,140 LEDs.
- Boise, ID, drops a glowing potato.
- Key West, FL, drops an eight-foot ruby-red heel—complete with a drag queen inside!
- In Spain, revelers gulp down 12 grapes—one for each midnight chime—to bring luck for each month
- Denmark - Danes toss old dishes at friends’ doors—large piles of broken crockery at dawn are seen as tokens of good luck.
What a year!
- So many themes in 12 months
- AI, Tariffs, War and Trade War, Fat drugs, Deglobalization
- Data centers, semiconductors, and supporting infrastructure like power and cooling systems.
- Approx: DJIA +13.5%, SP500 +17%, NASDA +21%, BTCUSD -7.6%, Gold +64%, SLV +145%, $DXY -9.5%, EEM +30%
- 2026 - Opportunities and Auld Lang Xiety (Tech still looks frothy in certain names)
Top New Year's Resolutions
- Exercise More
- Eat Healthier
- Save More Money/Get Out of Debt
- Be Happy/Improve Mental Health
- Lose Weight
- Spend More Time with Family & Friends
- Learn a New Skill/Hobby
- Get Organized
Active Management (Funds)
- Same report annually
- A small group of tech super stocks accounted for an outsize share of returns in 2025, extending a pattern in place for the better part of a decade.
- Around $1 trillion was pulled from active equity mutual funds over the year, marking an 11th year of net outflows, while passive equity exchange-traded funds got more than $600 billion.
- The concentration of gains in a few stocks made it harder for active managers to do well, with 73% of equity mutual funds trailing their benchmarks this year, the fourth most in data going back to 2007.
- BUT, there are some areas that it makes sense for active management
---- Equity vs Fixed income and reasoning
--- Efficient markets, boots on the ground
Fat Pill
- The FDA has approved the first-ever GLP-1 pill from Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk.
- Novo Nordisk said the starting dose of 1.5 milligrams will be available in early January in pharmacies and via select telehealth providers with savings offers for $149 per month.
- The approval gives Novo Nordisk a head start over chief rival Eli Lilly, which is racing to launch its own obesity pill.
- Packaged food makers and fast-food restaurants may be forced to overhaul more of their products next year as newly approved, appetite-suppressing GLP-1 pills become available in January
PowerBall
- A ticket sold in Arkansas scored a $1.8 billion Powerball jackpot after Wednesday night's draw — one of the richest lottery prizes in U.S. history, landing just in time for Christmas.
- The payout soared after last Monday’s drawing produced no winners, with last-minute ticket sales pushing the jackpot to $1.817 billion. That makes it the second-largest U.S. lottery prize ever and the biggest Powerball of 2025, the lottery website said on Thursday.
- The winning numbers — 4, 25, 31, 52, 59 and the Powerball 19
- Odds: one in 292.2 million.
Silver
- Amazing year!
- Sunday night futures - >$83 then turned hard lower|
- Down 7% on Monday
- Range $83 - $71 (15%) for the day
- Some rumors about a bank collapse due to wrong way position on Silver - forced liquidation and covering....
----- Hard to believe that a bank was short that much silver - but.....
SoKo Breach
- South Korean online retail giant Coupang said it will offer 1.69 trillion South Korean won ($1.17 billion) in compensation to 34 million users affected by a massive data breach disclosed last month.
- That is about 4% of Coupang's annual revenue - but a big chunk of their profit
- $34 per user
NVDA Deal
- Nvidia has yet to issue a public announcement or disclosure regarding its $20 billion Groq deal that CNBC was first to cover on Wednesday.
- Groq described the deal as a “non-exclusive licensing agreement,” a tool that’s been used by tech giants of late in part to avoid regulatory scrutiny.
- Analyst: “Antitrust would seem to be the primary risk here, though structuring the deal as a non-exclusive license may keep the fiction of competition alive,” Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon wrote in a report.
- Groq will remain an independent company (?)
GDP Consumption
- Something is a bit off....
- With the marketplace costs increasing, this may be more than a one-off expenditure
Q3 GDP Surge
Russia/Ukraine
- Less that an hour after the White House claimed great movement toward peace
- Russian President Putin told President Trump that Russia will revise its negotiating position, raising questions over prospects for peace deal
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Ukraine tried to attack Russian President Putin's residence
- Does anyone even listen to the crap coming out of the White House anymore?
- Did you hear Lutnick trying to explain the 600% reduction in costs for pharmaceuticals? Math wizards!
- - For 2026, my wish is that they continue to work on the job at hand and just shut up
Just for fun - Who is biggest drinker of spirits?
- While there's no single official "heaviest drinker," legendary wrestler Andre the Giant is widely cited as having unmatched capacity, famously downing 119 beers in one sitting (or even up to 156 in other accounts)
Oil
- Crude oil futures down about 9.5% YTD
- Much of the drop due to pick up in production (supply/demand)
- Still a floor with as Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela etc
- What will it take to move up?
Best Auto Stock for 2025?
- GM! Better than ford, Tesla and others (up 55%) - best year from coming out of bankruptcy in 2009
- Ford up 35%
- Mary Barra, CEO selling into the strength - $73 M sold this year (Position down 73% from what she held last year)
- - - Barra has contended for years that stock undervalued. With all of these say what does that say now?
--- Would she ever say shares are overvalued?
More fun stats
- A peer?reviewed 2025 study estimates AI data centers (including indirect usage from electricity generation) consumed 312–765 billion liters of water annually. That’s more than all bottled water consumed worldwide each year
- Direct (on-site) water is used for cooling servers via systems like cooling towers or liquid loops.
Indirect (off-site) water stems from electricity generation—particularly from thermal and nuclear plants, which require significant cooling resources
- ??? Estimates suggest a single standard AI prompt (about 100 words) is linked to around 1.5 liters of water—accounting for the entire chain of consumption. (This is total usage from cooling powr consumption, electricity generation)
- Global AI workloads consumed 50–60 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025—roughly the annual electricity use of a medium-sized country like Switzerland.
- By 2030, AI-related electricity demand could reach 300–500 TWh annually, according to energy analysts—comparable to the entire electricity consumption of countries like France.
Over to Iran
- President Trump tells reporters that if Iran is building up its nuclear program, the U.S. will have to "knock them down" again
--- Wait - I thought we destroyed all of their nuke aspirations???
- - - AND - Iran's currency hit a record low, triggering wave of protests, according to Bloomberg
Fed News
- Top Fed Chair Candidate Odds Narrow Again, With Hassett at 43% and Warsh at 35%
- President Trump still angry at Powell 0threating to sue for incompetence
Odd
- Tesla Inc. published a series of sales estimates indicating the outlook for its vehicle deliveries may be lower than many investors were expecting.
- The carmaker posted estimates showing analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,850 cars in the fourth quarter, down 15% from a year earlier.
- Tesla is on course for its second consecutive drop in annual vehicle sales, with the company compiling an average estimate for 1.6 million deliveries, down more than 8% from a year earlier.
- These are estimates published by analysts - Tesla put on its own site - WHY?
End of Year Stat
- The U.S. national debt is climbing at a rapid pace and has shown no signs of slowing down despite the growing criticism of massive levels of government spending.
- The national debt, which measures what the U.S. owes its creditors, rose to $38,386,384,190,622.68 as of Dec. 30, according to the latest numbers published by the Treasury Department.
- That is an increase of about $5.8 billion daily
- ~$18 per person in the US per day increase ($7,300) - or about the monthly price of leasing a small Mercedes
- Each person in US owes approx $128,000
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025
Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
CTP CUP 2025 Participants:
Jim Beaver
Mike Kazmierczak
Joe Metzger
Ken Degel
David Martin
Dean Wormell
Neil Larion
Mary Lou Schwarzer
Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
View all episodes
By Horowitz and DvorakLooking at a weird GDP data point.
Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks.
Gold and Silver – WOW!
Closing out the year – a good one too!
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants!
- Lots to be excited about and anxious too
- Looking at a weird GDP data point
- Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks
Markets
- Gold and Silver - WOW!
- Closing out the year - a good one too!
- Buyers are still hot to buy any dip
- "Diet" pills coming
Bitters Making Progress
- Chocolate
-Dark Cherry
-Infusions
- https://highdesertbotanicals.com
NYE Celebration
- Cities across America ring in the new year by dropping unexpected objects:
- Amelia Island, FL drops a giant shrimp.
- Nashville drops a 400lb musical note with 28,140 LEDs.
- Boise, ID, drops a glowing potato.
- Key West, FL, drops an eight-foot ruby-red heel—complete with a drag queen inside!
- In Spain, revelers gulp down 12 grapes—one for each midnight chime—to bring luck for each month
- Denmark - Danes toss old dishes at friends’ doors—large piles of broken crockery at dawn are seen as tokens of good luck.
What a year!
- So many themes in 12 months
- AI, Tariffs, War and Trade War, Fat drugs, Deglobalization
- Data centers, semiconductors, and supporting infrastructure like power and cooling systems.
- Approx: DJIA +13.5%, SP500 +17%, NASDA +21%, BTCUSD -7.6%, Gold +64%, SLV +145%, $DXY -9.5%, EEM +30%
- 2026 - Opportunities and Auld Lang Xiety (Tech still looks frothy in certain names)
Top New Year's Resolutions
- Exercise More
- Eat Healthier
- Save More Money/Get Out of Debt
- Be Happy/Improve Mental Health
- Lose Weight
- Spend More Time with Family & Friends
- Learn a New Skill/Hobby
- Get Organized
Active Management (Funds)
- Same report annually
- A small group of tech super stocks accounted for an outsize share of returns in 2025, extending a pattern in place for the better part of a decade.
- Around $1 trillion was pulled from active equity mutual funds over the year, marking an 11th year of net outflows, while passive equity exchange-traded funds got more than $600 billion.
- The concentration of gains in a few stocks made it harder for active managers to do well, with 73% of equity mutual funds trailing their benchmarks this year, the fourth most in data going back to 2007.
- BUT, there are some areas that it makes sense for active management
---- Equity vs Fixed income and reasoning
--- Efficient markets, boots on the ground
Fat Pill
- The FDA has approved the first-ever GLP-1 pill from Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk.
- Novo Nordisk said the starting dose of 1.5 milligrams will be available in early January in pharmacies and via select telehealth providers with savings offers for $149 per month.
- The approval gives Novo Nordisk a head start over chief rival Eli Lilly, which is racing to launch its own obesity pill.
- Packaged food makers and fast-food restaurants may be forced to overhaul more of their products next year as newly approved, appetite-suppressing GLP-1 pills become available in January
PowerBall
- A ticket sold in Arkansas scored a $1.8 billion Powerball jackpot after Wednesday night's draw — one of the richest lottery prizes in U.S. history, landing just in time for Christmas.
- The payout soared after last Monday’s drawing produced no winners, with last-minute ticket sales pushing the jackpot to $1.817 billion. That makes it the second-largest U.S. lottery prize ever and the biggest Powerball of 2025, the lottery website said on Thursday.
- The winning numbers — 4, 25, 31, 52, 59 and the Powerball 19
- Odds: one in 292.2 million.
Silver
- Amazing year!
- Sunday night futures - >$83 then turned hard lower|
- Down 7% on Monday
- Range $83 - $71 (15%) for the day
- Some rumors about a bank collapse due to wrong way position on Silver - forced liquidation and covering....
----- Hard to believe that a bank was short that much silver - but.....
SoKo Breach
- South Korean online retail giant Coupang said it will offer 1.69 trillion South Korean won ($1.17 billion) in compensation to 34 million users affected by a massive data breach disclosed last month.
- That is about 4% of Coupang's annual revenue - but a big chunk of their profit
- $34 per user
NVDA Deal
- Nvidia has yet to issue a public announcement or disclosure regarding its $20 billion Groq deal that CNBC was first to cover on Wednesday.
- Groq described the deal as a “non-exclusive licensing agreement,” a tool that’s been used by tech giants of late in part to avoid regulatory scrutiny.
- Analyst: “Antitrust would seem to be the primary risk here, though structuring the deal as a non-exclusive license may keep the fiction of competition alive,” Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon wrote in a report.
- Groq will remain an independent company (?)
GDP Consumption
- Something is a bit off....
- With the marketplace costs increasing, this may be more than a one-off expenditure
Q3 GDP Surge
Russia/Ukraine
- Less that an hour after the White House claimed great movement toward peace
- Russian President Putin told President Trump that Russia will revise its negotiating position, raising questions over prospects for peace deal
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Ukraine tried to attack Russian President Putin's residence
- Does anyone even listen to the crap coming out of the White House anymore?
- Did you hear Lutnick trying to explain the 600% reduction in costs for pharmaceuticals? Math wizards!
- - For 2026, my wish is that they continue to work on the job at hand and just shut up
Just for fun - Who is biggest drinker of spirits?
- While there's no single official "heaviest drinker," legendary wrestler Andre the Giant is widely cited as having unmatched capacity, famously downing 119 beers in one sitting (or even up to 156 in other accounts)
Oil
- Crude oil futures down about 9.5% YTD
- Much of the drop due to pick up in production (supply/demand)
- Still a floor with as Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela etc
- What will it take to move up?
Best Auto Stock for 2025?
- GM! Better than ford, Tesla and others (up 55%) - best year from coming out of bankruptcy in 2009
- Ford up 35%
- Mary Barra, CEO selling into the strength - $73 M sold this year (Position down 73% from what she held last year)
- - - Barra has contended for years that stock undervalued. With all of these say what does that say now?
--- Would she ever say shares are overvalued?
More fun stats
- A peer?reviewed 2025 study estimates AI data centers (including indirect usage from electricity generation) consumed 312–765 billion liters of water annually. That’s more than all bottled water consumed worldwide each year
- Direct (on-site) water is used for cooling servers via systems like cooling towers or liquid loops.
Indirect (off-site) water stems from electricity generation—particularly from thermal and nuclear plants, which require significant cooling resources
- ??? Estimates suggest a single standard AI prompt (about 100 words) is linked to around 1.5 liters of water—accounting for the entire chain of consumption. (This is total usage from cooling powr consumption, electricity generation)
- Global AI workloads consumed 50–60 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025—roughly the annual electricity use of a medium-sized country like Switzerland.
- By 2030, AI-related electricity demand could reach 300–500 TWh annually, according to energy analysts—comparable to the entire electricity consumption of countries like France.
Over to Iran
- President Trump tells reporters that if Iran is building up its nuclear program, the U.S. will have to "knock them down" again
--- Wait - I thought we destroyed all of their nuke aspirations???
- - - AND - Iran's currency hit a record low, triggering wave of protests, according to Bloomberg
Fed News
- Top Fed Chair Candidate Odds Narrow Again, With Hassett at 43% and Warsh at 35%
- President Trump still angry at Powell 0threating to sue for incompetence
Odd
- Tesla Inc. published a series of sales estimates indicating the outlook for its vehicle deliveries may be lower than many investors were expecting.
- The carmaker posted estimates showing analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,850 cars in the fourth quarter, down 15% from a year earlier.
- Tesla is on course for its second consecutive drop in annual vehicle sales, with the company compiling an average estimate for 1.6 million deliveries, down more than 8% from a year earlier.
- These are estimates published by analysts - Tesla put on its own site - WHY?
End of Year Stat
- The U.S. national debt is climbing at a rapid pace and has shown no signs of slowing down despite the growing criticism of massive levels of government spending.
- The national debt, which measures what the U.S. owes its creditors, rose to $38,386,384,190,622.68 as of Dec. 30, according to the latest numbers published by the Treasury Department.
- That is an increase of about $5.8 billion daily
- ~$18 per person in the US per day increase ($7,300) - or about the monthly price of leasing a small Mercedes
- Each person in US owes approx $128,000
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025
Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!
CTP CUP 2025 Participants:
Jim Beaver
Mike Kazmierczak
Joe Metzger
Ken Degel
David Martin
Dean Wormell
Neil Larion
Mary Lou Schwarzer
Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)
FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter