Did the Forecast Hold?

(00:00:00) January 21: the northward storm shift

(00:01:42) Pacific and Gulf moisture

(00:02:26) Chicago's northern edge and lake-effect potential

(00:03:28) The evolving storm track

(00:05:39) Snow totals and ratios

(00:08:36) Baltimore, Arctic cold and the major cities

(00:10:52) Snow squalls and Friday's cold

(00:11:31) Washington, New York and Chicago details

POPULAR ARCHIVE 22 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2026-01-21. Verified source-edition publication: 2026-01-22 00:28:48 UTC. These are separate dates, not interchangeable.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The updated forecast captured the northward expansion, St. Louis's significant snow and Baltimore's near-foot outcome well, with a useful eye on Chicago lake enhancement; Washington's quoted model amount was higher than the station total.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
A northward-shifting winter storm, at least six inches possible in St. Louis, near a foot around Baltimore, significant Washington/New York snow, and possible Chicago lake enhancement.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The episode distinguishes model snowfall from official forecasts and tells listeners to check whether sleet or freezing rain could change totals. That qualification matters when reviewing a 10:1 snow map. The successful regional trend and several close city calls should be recognized alongside the more optimistic Washington figure.

St. Louis Lambert recorded 5.1 inches on January 24 and 3.1 on January 25, totaling 8.2 inches, supporting the six-inch-plus St. Louis concern.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00013743,USW00014732,USW00013994&startDate=2026-01-24&endDate=2026-01-27&dataTypes=SNOW&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

Baltimore-Washington Airport recorded 11.3 inches on January 25, close to the forecast's foot of snow, while Reagan National recorded 6.9 inches, less than the 11.5-inch Washington model amount quoted.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00013743,USW00014732,USW00013994&startDate=2026-01-24&endDate=2026-01-27&dataTypes=SNOW&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

LaGuardia totaled 10.1 inches on January 25–26, broadly supporting a major New York snow event but not establishing one uniform citywide amount.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00013743,USW00014732,USW00013994&startDate=2026-01-24&endDate=2026-01-27&dataTypes=SNOW&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

NWS Chicago confirms lake-enhanced snow on January 25 with higher amounts in eastern Cook County.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/media/...

O'Hare's daily snowfall totaled 4.4 inches on January 24–25.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,TMIN,SNOW&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
Snow and sleet can differ among official totals and locations; this review does not turn a model's 10:1 snow map into a guaranteed depth, and the airport total alone cannot establish whether all of Chicago experienced a separate pure lake-effect event.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 January 21: the northward storm shift
01:42 Pacific and Gulf moisture
02:26 Chicago's northern edge and lake-effect potential
03:28 The evolving storm track
05:39 Snow totals and ratios
08:36 Baltimore, Arctic cold and the major cities
10:52 Snow squalls and Friday's cold
11:31 Washington, New York and Chicago details

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 69540003. Original source edition: (popular)1/21/26: Major Southern historic winter storm expands northward
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) January 19: Arctic outbreak and southern storm

(00:01:57) Southern mixed precipitation and East Coast guidance

(00:03:22) Chicago clippers and frontal snow

(00:05:36) The Arctic high and southern ice threat

(00:07:03) Blocking, jet-stream pattern and storm track

(00:10:14) Chicago's dangerous-cold forecast

(00:11:16) Next-week speculation and commute advice

POPULAR ARCHIVE 21 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2026-01-19. Verified source-edition publication: 2026-01-20 04:25:17 UTC. These are separate dates, not interchangeable.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
A useful early warning of dangerous Arctic cold and a major southern/eastern winter storm; the eventual Northeast snowfall was greater than the initial city guidance discussed.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
A major southern and eastern winter storm January 24–26, dangerous Arctic cold in Chicago, and initially lighter 1–4-inch snow guidance for some northeastern cities.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
This outlook was issued several days before the weekend event and expressly says the track was not set in stone. The host's double-digit-subzero cold concern verified at O'Hare, while an all-day subzero high was discussed as a possibility rather than a certainty. The much larger later Northeast snow totals show why those early numbers needed updating, not that the broader storm warning lacked value.

O'Hare reached lows of −11°F on January 23 and −10°F on January 24, supporting the warning of double-digit-subzero cold; its January 23 high was 5°F, so the possible all-day subzero scenario did not occur at that station.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,TMIN,SNOW&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

Baltimore-Washington Airport recorded 11.3 inches on January 25 and LaGuardia totaled 10.1 inches on January 25–26, well above the early 1–4-inch East Coast figures discussed.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00013743,USW00014732,USW00013994&startDate=2026-01-24&endDate=2026-01-27&dataTypes=SNOW&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

NWS Paducah describes a major January 24–25 winter storm with 4–8 inches of snow and sleet across the southern half of its region and 8–14 inches in parts of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana, with a major ice storm farther south in Tennessee and Mississippi.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/pah/Ja...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
This was an early forecast with stated track uncertainty; station snowfall is not ice thickness, and Florida palm-tree snow, precise wind chills and every clipper amount are not verified by these observations.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 January 19: Arctic outbreak and southern storm
01:57 Southern mixed precipitation and East Coast guidance
03:22 Chicago clippers and frontal snow
05:36 The Arctic high and southern ice threat
07:03 Blocking, jet-stream pattern and storm track
10:14 Chicago's dangerous-cold forecast
11:16 Next-week speculation and commute advice

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 69514345. Original source edition: (popular)Update on clipper system in Chicago and major significant snow for the South Central States
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) November 30 recording: later source reissue

(00:01:48) Chicago's November daily snow record

(00:04:03) A rare lakeside snow setup

(00:07:14) Skokie, Evanston and Chicago totals

(00:11:18) The January 2021 comparison

(00:13:36) Monday-night snow and the next systems

(00:18:41) Early-December snow outlook

(00:20:12) Longer-range cold and closing

POPULAR ARCHIVE 20 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2025-11-30. Verified source-edition publication: 2026-02-23 20:41:06 UTC. These are separate dates, not interchangeable. This source is a later reissue; the first publication of the underlying recording has not been independently established.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
This later source reissue retains the accurate record-snow recap and the useful expectation of more early-December snow; its weather content belongs to November 30, not its later upload date.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
A later-published source reissue of the November 30, 2025 discussion, not a February weather forecast.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
Preserving the recording's actual content date prevents listeners from mistaking a later source upload for a February forecast. As with the other November 30 editions, the observed record and the forward-looking portions are assessed separately. A broad longer-range cold signal is not treated as a precise surface-temperature promise for one day.

NWS records 8.4 inches at O'Hare on November 29 and 8.7 for the whole storm, with Skokie at 10.0 inches and Evanston at 8.9 inches.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

The subsequent December 1 snowfall of 1–3 inches and December 6–7 clipper snowfall of 3–7 inches support the recording's expectation of more early-season snow.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/No...

O'Hare's December 10 high was 40°F and its December 14 low was −2°F, so a later cold pattern developed, but a model's upper-air cold pocket should not be read as a precise surface-temperature prediction.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,TMIN,SNOW&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
This audio overlaps the earlier November 30 editions and is included as a clearly labeled source reissue, not a new forecast; the source-edition publication timestamp in 2026 does not move the recording's weather content into February.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 November 30 recording: later source reissue
01:48 Chicago's November daily snow record
04:03 A rare lakeside snow setup
07:14 Skokie, Evanston and Chicago totals
11:18 The January 2021 comparison
13:36 Monday-night snow and the next systems
18:41 Early-December snow outlook
20:12 Longer-range cold and closing

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 70238034. Original source edition: Informative and popular episode from November 30th 2025 regarding a Rare Chicago November southern stream Snow
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) Alternate November 30 source edition

(00:01:47) The November daily snowfall record

(00:04:05) Storm setup and Lake Michigan

(00:07:14) Observed neighborhood snow totals

(00:11:16) The January 2021 comparison

(00:13:35) Monday night's developing system

(00:18:39) More snow opportunities

(00:20:09) Longer-range cold and closing

POPULAR ARCHIVE 19 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2025-11-30. Verified source-edition publication: 2025-12-01 01:05:58 UTC. These are separate dates, not interchangeable.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
This alternate source edition preserves the same well-supported November snow recap and a useful outlook for the continuing early-December snowy pattern.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
An alternate source edition of the November 30 recap: the recent record snow, a 1–4-inch Monday-night possibility, and additional snow in early December.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
This is an alternate edition of the November 30 discussion, preserved because it is one of the requested archive entries. It is not presented as a separate, newly issued forecast. The shared content still deserves the same fair recognition for its correct observations and its subsequent snow outlook.

O'Hare's November 29 calendar-day snowfall was 8.4 inches and its November 29–30 storm total was 8.7 inches, confirming the distinction emphasized in the recording.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

NWS confirms this was O'Hare's greatest storm-total snowfall since 10.8 inches on January 30–31, 2021, so the host's suggested correction to that comparison is unnecessary.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

NWS reports 1–3 inches on December 1 and 3–7 inches from the December 6–7 clipper, supporting further accumulation after this episode.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/No...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
The supplied archive contains multiple editions of this discussion; this file is preserved because all 22 source entries were requested, with its own audio timings, and a repeated observation is not counted as a separate forecast hit.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 Alternate November 30 source edition
01:47 The November daily snowfall record
04:05 Storm setup and Lake Michigan
07:14 Observed neighborhood snow totals
11:16 The January 2021 comparison
13:35 Monday night's developing system
18:39 More snow opportunities
20:09 Longer-range cold and closing

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 68812366. Original source edition: (popular and informative) November 30th snow totals Chicago Illinois and the 10-day forecast
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) November 30 recap and winter-storm ingredients

(00:01:48) The November daily snowfall record

(00:04:03) Why the lakeside snow was unusual

(00:07:14) Skokie, Evanston and local totals

(00:11:18) Was it the biggest storm since 2021?

(00:13:36) Next storm: Monday night's snow

(00:18:41) More early-December systems

(00:20:12) Longer-range cold and closing reflections

POPULAR ARCHIVE 18 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2025-11-30. Verified source-edition publication: 2025-11-30 23:23:14 UTC.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The recap accurately highlighted a remarkable November snowfall record and local totals, and the outlook for further early-December snow was supported by subsequent events.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
Mostly a recap of November 29–30 snow, followed by a forecast of about 1–4 inches Monday night and further early-December snow opportunities.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The episode's main purpose is to explain a storm that had just happened, followed by an outlook for what comes next. Its record observations are assessed as reporting, not misrepresented as advance predictions. The official station-versus-neighborhood distinction also helps resolve the question raised about the previous comparable storm.

NWS confirms O'Hare's 8.4 inches on November 29 set Chicago's November single-calendar-day record, while the full November 29–30 storm total was 8.7 inches.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

The same report lists 10.0 inches at Skokie, 8.9 near Evanston and 8.7 in Chicago–West Ridge, close to the local amounts discussed.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

NWS documents a December 1 event with 1–3 inches across the area and a December 6–7 clipper with 3–7 inches, supporting the forecast of more snow without proving every individual model scenario.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/No...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
This episode was recorded after the record storm, so its recap is not credited as a successful advance forecast; the 'largest since January 30–31, 2021' comparison is confirmed by NWS, despite the host's doubts, and every-location wind or snow mechanism is not independently verified.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 November 30 recap and winter-storm ingredients
01:48 The November daily snowfall record
04:03 Why the lakeside snow was unusual
07:14 Skokie, Evanston and local totals
11:18 Was it the biggest storm since 2021?
13:36 Next storm: Monday night's snow
18:41 More early-December systems
20:12 Longer-range cold and closing reflections

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 68811691. Original source edition: (A popular and informative episode with added background music)11-30-25-Chicago: Storm Totals- 2 more on way- next 10 day forecast
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) November 9: the high-end snow scenario

(00:01:54) Cold air aloft and the Buffalo comparison

(00:04:15) NWS lake-effect setup and timing

(00:06:54) The uncertain trailing snow band

(00:08:33) Lake instability and temperature contrasts

(00:13:11) Snow rates, thunder and travel hazards

(00:18:39) Airport forecasts and second-band uncertainty

(00:23:03) Lincolnwood snowfall forecast

(00:25:28) Comparing AccuWeather and NWS scenarios

POPULAR ARCHIVE 17 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2025-11-09. Verified source-edition publication: 2026-06-25 19:00:00 UTC. These are separate dates, not interchangeable. This source is a later reissue; the first publication of the underlying recording has not been independently established.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The episode correctly recognized a genuinely intense lake-effect setup, thundersnow potential and the importance of band placement; the highest Cook County snowfall scenario did not materialize.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
Intense lake-effect bands, 12–18 inches in favored areas and a conditional ceiling of 2–4 feet if a band stalled, with strong emphasis on Cook County.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
Much of the high-end accumulation discussion is explicitly attributed to the contemporaneous NWS outlook. The recording repeatedly explains that an uncertain trailing band and whether it stalled would determine the result. The lower local totals are a real forecast difference, but the conditional 2–4-foot ceiling was not a promise for every part of Chicago.

NWS lists 1.7 inches at O'Hare and updated storm totals of 5.7 inches in Chicago–West Ridge and 5.2 inches near Evanston, far below the Cook County-focused high-end scenario.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

NWS attributes the local snowfall minimum across Chicago and adjacent suburbs to an unexpected separation of the two main intense bands.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

The event did produce several thundersnow reports and rates above two inches per hour in the strongest bands, so the instability concern was real even though placement drove the local bust.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lot/20...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
The 2–4-foot ceiling was explicitly conditional, not a forecast for every location; there is no Lincolnwood-specific observed total in the cited report, and the audio's 'coldest on the planet' comparison is not established by this review.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 November 9: the high-end snow scenario
01:54 Cold air aloft and the Buffalo comparison
04:15 NWS lake-effect setup and timing
06:54 The uncertain trailing snow band
08:33 Lake instability and temperature contrasts
13:11 Snow rates, thunder and travel hazards
18:39 Airport forecasts and second-band uncertainty
23:03 Lincolnwood snowfall forecast
25:28 Comparing AccuWeather and NWS scenarios

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 68487780. Original source edition: Most popular: Chicago Lake Effect Snow tonight explained more in depth 11/9/2025
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) Alaska storm and tropical remnants

(00:02:41) Arizona moisture and Plains warmth

(00:05:12) The Texas ridge and Chicago 80s scenario

(00:09:22) Colder air behind the next systems

(00:18:13) The speculative Bering Sea connection

(00:20:42) Localized Chicago holiday-rain outlook

(00:26:29) Checking other forecasts and reducing confidence

(00:33:07) NWS North Dakota discussion

(00:36:18) Tulsa fire-weather and rain outlook

(00:40:10) Phoenix moisture and flood-watch discussion

(00:44:16) NWS Chicago discussion

(00:46:52) Music credits and trailer

POPULAR ARCHIVE 16 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2025-10-10. Verified source-edition publication: 2025-10-10 21:28:42 UTC.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The episode usefully shows the host checking competing forecasts and lowering his initial confidence; the opening Chicago 80s scenario was too warm, while the later cooling signal was sound.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
Early in the recording, Chicago 80s for Monday and the following weekend; later, the host explicitly lowers confidence after checking other forecasts, including low-70s guidance for Monday.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
A fair review must include the revision around 26–31 minutes, not quote only the opening. The host notices that other forecasts do not support the European model's warmth and explicitly pulls back. That self-correction is a strength, even though the earlier high-confidence scenario did not verify.

O'Hare reached 68°F on Monday October 13, 73°F on Saturday October 18, and 59°F on Sunday October 19, so the prominent 80-degree Chicago scenario did not verify at that station.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,TMIN,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

Rain measured 0.57 inch on October 18 and 0.38 inch on October 19, not a uniformly dry, summery weekend.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,TMIN,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

By October 23–24, O'Hare lows were 38°F and 34°F, supporting the general later-month cooling trend rather than the early warmth confidence.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,TMIN,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
The recording revises itself around 26–31 minutes, so judging only the opening would be unfair; lakefront neighborhood shower timing, the Alaska storm's exact pressure, Arizona rain amounts and the speculative three-week Bering Sea rule are not independently verified here.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 Alaska storm and tropical remnants
02:41 Arizona moisture and Plains warmth
05:12 The Texas ridge and Chicago 80s scenario
09:22 Colder air behind the next systems
18:13 The speculative Bering Sea connection
20:42 Localized Chicago holiday-rain outlook
26:29 Checking other forecasts and reducing confidence
33:07 NWS North Dakota discussion
36:18 Tulsa fire-weather and rain outlook
40:10 Phoenix moisture and flood-watch discussion
44:16 NWS Chicago discussion
46:52 Music credits and trailer

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 68094965. Original source edition: (popular) Hurricane Force storm over Alaska weather for the next 10 days in portions of United States -10-11-25
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) August 13: rare rain and extraordinary heat

(00:01:34) Jerusalem's reported peak temperature

(00:04:04) Hourly temperatures, dew points and heat index

(00:08:21) The claimed rain and overnight heat

(00:11:50) Pre-dawn warming and the next day's heat

(00:13:16) Possible explanations and heat-burst speculation

(00:16:34) Mediterranean humidity and sensor caveats

(00:19:26) Wider Israeli heat and historical context

POPULAR ARCHIVE 15 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2025-08-13. Verified source-edition publication: 2025-08-14 06:02:10 UTC. These are separate dates, not interchangeable.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The episode's account of extraordinary Jerusalem heat and a very hot night is supported by official observations, and its expectation of another triple-digit Thursday also held up.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
Primarily a report on August 12–13 heat, humidity and a claimed brief rain observation, with temperatures in the 100s expected again Thursday.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
Most of this audio is an enthusiastic close look at weather already observed, so it is assessed as reporting rather than a separate advance forecast. The host himself questions the dew-point sensor and says he does not know whether a thunderstorm occurred. Those caveats deserve to stay attached to the more unusual claims.

IMS Jerusalem Center reached 41.3°C (106.3°F) on August 12, close to the peak temperature discussed in the recording.
(Israel Meteorological Service heatwave report: https://ims.gov.il/sites/defau...

The same station recorded a minimum of 31.4°C (88.5°F) on August 13 and a maximum of 39.7°C (103.5°F) on August 14, supporting both the very hot night and another triple-digit Thursday.
(Israel Meteorological Service heatwave report: https://ims.gov.il/sites/defau...

IMS compares the sustained Jerusalem heat with an even more extreme week in August 1881, so a simple 'all-time' claim is not warranted from this review.
(Israel Meteorological Service heatwave report: https://ims.gov.il/sites/defau...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
Most of this recording describes weather already observed and is reviewed as reporting, not credited as an advance forecast; the IMS summary does not verify the claimed 0.02 rain amount, hourly 75°F dew point, or a Jerusalem heat burst, and nearby stations must not be substituted for Jerusalem Center.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 August 13: rare rain and extraordinary heat
01:34 Jerusalem's reported peak temperature
04:04 Hourly temperatures, dew points and heat index
08:21 The claimed rain and overnight heat
11:50 Pre-dawn warming and the next day's heat
13:16 Possible explanations and heat-burst speculation
16:34 Mediterranean humidity and sensor caveats
19:26 Wider Israeli heat and historical context

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 67364436. Original source edition: (popular)Jerusalem heat humidity and rain- 2nd week of August 2025.
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) May 14 update and multiple storm opportunities

(00:00:39) Israel's coming heat

(00:01:39) Texas heat dome and severe-weather boundary

(00:04:21) Midwest heat, moisture and the cap

(00:05:21) Chicago hail and wind threat

(00:06:26) Friday's St. Louis and Ohio Valley risk

(00:07:48) First 90-degree potential

(00:10:20) Music credits and sign-off

POPULAR ARCHIVE 14 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2025-05-14. Verified source-edition publication: 2025-05-14 17:49:03 UTC.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The episode identified the important two-day severe-weather sequence and the approaching heat, with Chicago's Thursday wind-and-hail concern and St. Louis's Friday threat both supported by the outcome.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
Chicago-area damaging wind and hail Thursday May 15, a greater St. Louis storm threat Friday May 16, and temperatures near 90°F in the Midwest.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The host explicitly discusses whether the cap could prevent storms and acknowledges that parts of Chicago could miss them. That is an appropriate expression of local uncertainty, not a guarantee of severe weather at each address. Risk-category context is clarified below without changing the fact that the hazard being flagged was real.

NWS May Storm Data documents Chicago-region severe hail and wind damage on May 15, including at least 2,200 trees blown down in Chicago.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/media/...

The St. Louis EF3 tornado occurred on May 16, supporting the warning that St. Louis's more significant storm opportunity was Friday, not Thursday.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lsx/05...

O'Hare's May 15 high was 94°F, above a simple near-90 expectation, while Lambert reached 88°F.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00013994&startDate=2025-05-15&endDate=2025-05-16&dataTypes=TMAX,TMIN,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

For clarity, SPC's Enhanced category is level 3 of 5, below Moderate and High; the category describes risk, not a certainty that every location will experience a severe storm.
(NOAA Storm Prediction Center risk-category guidance: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publi...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
The Israeli weekend temperatures and long-range Asian heat projections are not verified in this review; this regional event check does not mean every Chicago neighborhood experienced severe weather.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 May 14 update and multiple storm opportunities
00:39 Israel's coming heat
01:39 Texas heat dome and severe-weather boundary
04:21 Midwest heat, moisture and the cap
05:21 Chicago hail and wind threat
06:26 Friday's St. Louis and Ohio Valley risk
07:48 First 90-degree potential
10:20 Music credits and sign-off

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 66088233. Original source edition: 5/14/25: (popular)Severe Weather Update, Heatwave for U.S., Israel, India Pakistan& East of Caspian Sea
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.

(00:00:00) Northern Plains heat before Texas

(00:01:33) St. Louis downslope warming

(00:02:55) Texas heat and the Gulf ridge

(00:04:26) Thursday severe risk: Chicago versus St. Louis

(00:06:13) Storm timing and Midwest temperatures

(00:08:01) Closing remarks and music

(00:10:05) Music credits and temperature check

POPULAR ARCHIVE 13 OF 22 | Original Weather With Enthusiasm audio, preserved as supplied.

HISTORICAL RECORDING, NOT A CURRENT FORECAST. The review below is written only and is not spoken in this audio. No AI review narration has been added.

Recording/content date: 2025-05-12. Verified source-edition publication: 2025-05-12 21:15:00 UTC.

FORECAST VS. REALITY
The forecast usefully distinguished Chicago's Thursday storm threat from St. Louis's later opportunity; the heat arrived as expected regionally, with city-level temperature differences.

WHAT THE ORIGINAL AUDIO SAYS
Northern Plains and Texas heat; a hot Thursday May 15 in the Midwest, with Chicago storms more likely than St. Louis storms, followed by a Friday storm chance for St. Louis.

PUTTING THE FORECAST IN CONTEXT
The recording does not simply assume that a warm, unstable Midwest pattern produces storms everywhere at once. Its attention to the cap and the different city timing was useful. The small St. Louis temperature overforecast and stronger-than-expected O'Hare heat should be read alongside that successful storm sequence.

O'Hare reached 94°F on May 15 while St. Louis Lambert reached 88°F, so a low-90s St. Louis forecast was too warm and Chicago's upper-80s emphasis was too cool at O'Hare.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00013994&startDate=2025-05-15&endDate=2025-05-16&dataTypes=TMAX,TMIN,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

NWS documents large hail and widespread wind damage across the Chicago region on May 15, supporting the Thursday severe-storm warning.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/media/...

Lambert recorded no rain on May 15 and 0.64 inch on May 16, consistent with the recording's shift of the local storm concern to Friday.
(NOAA NCEI daily station observations: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/acce...,USW00013994&startDate=2025-05-15&endDate=2025-05-16&dataTypes=TMAX,TMIN,PRCP&units=standard&format=json&includeStationName=true)

The St. Louis EF3 tornado touched down near Clayton around 2:41 p.m. May 16, a severe outcome that should not be confused with the preceding day's lower local storm chance.
(National Weather Service event report: https://www.weather.gov/lsx/05...

SCOPE OF THIS CHECK
A dry airport does not establish that every point in a metro area stayed dry; the Texas and Dakotas extremes, precise heat-dome heights and lakefront temperatures are not independently verified here.

CHAPTERS IN THE ORIGINAL AUDIO
00:00 Northern Plains heat before Texas
01:33 St. Louis downslope warming
02:55 Texas heat and the Gulf ridge
04:26 Thursday severe risk: Chicago versus St. Louis
06:13 Storm timing and Midwest temperatures
08:01 Closing remarks and music
10:05 Music credits and temperature check

Review prepared October 19, 2026. Checks are limited to cited locations, dates and metrics; no numerical accuracy score is assigned. 'Popular Archive' is the publisher's selection label, not a verified current rank. Cover artwork is illustrative, not a historical map or photograph of this specific event.

Source episode ID: 66061009. Original source edition: (popular)5/12/25: Northern Plains Heatwave, then Texas, then Severe weather outbreak
https://www.spreaker.com/episo...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/did-the-forecast-hold--7479728/support.