Goldman Sachs latest research reveals global diesel inventories down 10-15% YoY to second-lowest post-pandemic levels. While current margins expected to moderate from extreme highs, they'll stabilize $10/barrel above pre-pandemic averages. Three key drivers: accelerated European refinery closures, China's policy-driven diesel output decline of 0.3mb/d, and constrained heavy crude supply. NY Harbor heating oil margin forecast raised to $28/barrel for H2 2025, with refining capacity additions slowing dramatically from 1.2mb/d to 0.5mb/d, supporting structural tightness in diesel markets.