Looking at the current expert debate on European security and its future, two arguments stand out. One is that the war in Ukraine is only the beginning of a wider war in Europe. That Russia has imperial ambitions and, if not deterred by Europe and NATO, could attack the Baltic states next.

Others, however, argue that Russia has only a strategic interest in keeping Ukraine out of NATO and the Western sphere of influence, but no further territorial ambitions. A prominent and often criticised proponent of this view is Professor John Mearsheimer.

I think it is worth looking at both narratives and arguments and assessing how factually grounded they are. Causal explanations cannot be confused with justifications. But the narrative one subscribes to has policy implications for defence and security. One leads to billions being spent on European rearmament. This is money that will then be lacking in other areas such as social spending, education, etc. So the question is: Does Russia really have imperial ambitions in Europe?

In Geopolitically Correct, I unpack the history, strategy, and implications for governments and businesses — cutting through the noise to provide clear analysis on European geopolitics.

In This Edition:

• Two Narratives In 2025

• Lessons from History: The Sowjet Doctrine and the Case of Finland

• Geostrategic Advice for Governments and Businesses

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