Upside

Doh Davos, Data Centre Downsides, No To Delaware, Dead SaaS & Defence IPOs


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01:35–10:24 — UK data centres: blocked… but a way through

A £1bn London-area data-centre project gets halted after a planning/EIA mess-up → delays of 9–12+ months, potentially worse.

The twist: data centres are being upgraded to “nationally significant infrastructure,” enabling central-government fast-track (DCO route) instead of local NIMBY planning.

Still: EIAs + judicial reviews can keep slowing everything down. Core complaint: the system keeps “deciding whether to build” after we’ve already decided we must.

10:24–20:01 — Davos: in a fractured world, can middle powers go solo?

Big takeaway: the old global order isn’t coming back. Middle powers doing bilateral deals risk being picked off one-by-one. The only viable strategy is bigger blocs + coordination.

On AI/robotics: Europe shouldn’t obsess over winning foundation models; the opportunity is physical AI (robotics, manufacturing, automation) layered onto Europe’s engineering base—if politics and fragmentation don’t smother it.

20:01–22:22 — AI vs jobs: don’t overkill the headline

Entry-level postings are down since early 2023, but the consensus here is: macro + rates explain most of it. AI will reshuffle work (especially junior/clerical tasks), but mass unemployment isn’t the base case.

22:22–27:46 — EU Inc / “28th regime”: real momentum and real resistance

EU Inc aims to make a pan-EU startup entity that’s fast/cheap to set up (48 hours, no minimum capital), plus simpler ESOPs (ideally tax deferred until liquidity).

The fight now: Regulation vs Directive

  • Regulation = uniform + immediate, but needs unanimity
  • Directive = easier, but invites delay + fragmentation

Expect pushback framed around labour standards and “race-to-the-bottom” fears.

27:46–34:51 — Has China already won AI?

Reframe “winning”: it’s not god-like AI dominance; it’s economic + military power with AI as a lever. Models converge fast, advantages erode, and the “months not years” gap matters.

Europe’s real risk is strategic irrelevance unless it scales power: capital markets, energy, defence capacity, and political cohesion (with a nod to the UK needing to be onside).

34:51–39:30 — US science funding “collapse”: brutal in pockets, not total

Big cuts and cancellations are real—especially in politically sensitive areas—but most US R&D is private sector, and defence-linked R&D keeps growing. Europe is trying to attract researchers, but this doesn’t yet look like a permanent talent migration.

39:30–43:13 — SaaS: dead? no? trapped?

SaaS faces a fork:

  1. Mature into a cash machine (cut bloat, optimise margins), or
  2. Become a “system of context” by embedding AI/agents deeply

Why the pain: ZIRP-era bloat + expensive orgs + incentive traps.
 Bright spot: incumbents with distribution are already monetising AI add-ons at meaningful ARR.

43:13–45:47 — Defence IPO era: the Overton window moved

A blockbuster European defence IPO becomes the poster child for a broader trend: defence re-rated, ESG lines shifting, and a growing pipeline as European defence budgets rise for the next decade.

45:47–47:02 — Quick hits

Billion-scale European fund raise gets a shout-out. More big AI deals bubbling. New fund launch focused on robotics/manufacturing, positioned as aligned with what Europe needs next.

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UpsideBy Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen - SuperSeed