Financial Review

Don’t Fight the Fed


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FOMC minutes show a June rate hike is on the table; Goldman sees no reason to own equities; plus overtime wages, steel tariffs, and if you have further questions ask that Google thingie. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 05-18-2016   DOW – 3 = 17,526 SPX + 0.42 = 2047 NAS + 23 = 4739 10 Y + .12 = 1.88% OIL – .12 = 48.19 GOLD – 20.80 = 1259.00   There’s an old saying “don’t fight the Fed.” The Fed has indicated that if the data points to a rate hike, they would be prepared to hike rates in June. The markets have not reflected the Fed’s position.  The CME’s Fed Watch tool, which uses fed fund futures trading levels to determine the likelihood of a hike at each meeting, indicates that a better than 50 percent chance of a move doesn’t happen until the December FOMC session. Within the past week, futures trading indicated almost zero chance of an increase in June. Yesterday, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed President John Williams agreed that up to three rate hikes this year “seemed reasonable,” while Dallas President Robert Kaplan said he would call for a rate rise in June or July.   Today, the Fed released minutes from the April FOMC meeting. June is definitely on the table. The minutes indicated that members of the Federal Open Market Committee were worried that markets were underestimating the possibility of an early rate hike. Fed ...
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Financial ReviewBy Sinclair Noe