If you've been hoping for interest rates to fall this year, I've got some bad news for you: borrowing costs will likely only go higher from here.

At least, that's what we've been hearing from various Fed officials over the past couple of weeks. More specifically, these individuals have been telling us that the central bank should continue raising rates into the foreseeable future, and the fact is that incoming data supports their case for future rate hikes.

To this point, inflation data for January showed that prices accelerated at a faster-than-expected rate, rising 0.5% on a month-over-month basis. What's more, the data also show that US labor market conditions remained robust in January, as employers added over 500,000 jobs to their payrolls, besting economist expectations of a slowdown. 

And if that wasn't enough to dash the market's hopes of lower interest rates this year, government data just recently showed that households spent at a faster-than-expected rate of 6.4% last month compared to a forecast of 4.5% for January.

If we're in a recession at this moment, then this is possibly one of the strongest economic environments we've experienced in a while heading into the start of an economic downturn. This perspective is relevant because history tells us is that the Fed tends to pause interest rate hikes as the data begins to turn to the downside. 

And so far, while there is some evidence of slowing economic activity, the data does not yet make a solid case to prevent policymakers from raising rates higher from here. What this means is that we’re likely to see more market volatility and economic uncertainty in the months ahead.

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