In Iran the US negotiators will have to be very flexible indeed about the ‘deal’ they agree, because the Iranians won’t be. In Lebanon the mediators (the US) are trying to go from an ambassadorial meeting to a summit instantly, and that will require some real incentives from the Americans. The Lebanese Government (as I’ve already said this week) are not going to be eager to accept an open-ended commitment to go to war with Hizballah.Meanwhile, the US is expressing itself pleased that everyone is complying with their blockade of Iran (which blockade is of course largely enforced by the shipowners’ insurers), which cuts off Iran from all commerce with Russia, China and North Korea, except whatever moves to Iran across their land borders or across the Caspian Sea with … Russia?

Why, though, hasn’t ‘decapitation’ defeated Iran or Hizballah? Nor, for that matter Hamas? Why keep trying to achieve strategic effect by killing enemy leadership, if it doesn’t work? Is it because it’s important to be seen to do something? Is it because continuous warfare against an implacable enemy gets votes? Will that make a difference in the Israeli election in the next six months? What about the American election in seven?

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