One area, that hinders me as a Dynasty Owner, is valuing rookie draft picks quite simply, it is not my strength. I can typically determine which players in the draft class that I like, but how do I go about measuring these rookies to the players that are already in the NFL.

Every season I have myself questioning the value of my draft picks. Perhaps I am a Builder and I am hoarding these picks, or conversely, I am an All-In owner looking to turn those picks into assets that are usable now.

In an attempt to increase my knowledge, I decided to review all players drafted from 2010-2018. I recorded their results each season and determined what percentage of these players were a success, or as I will refer to them as a hit. So what does success look like and how do we determine if these players are a hit?

I have based the results on 12 team leagues with PPR scoring, 4 points per passing TD. Typically, the leagues I play in the most are 12 teams PPR 1 QB leagues, in those leagues we usually start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, and some flex positions.

With that in mind, I identified the hit rate as any player that has achieved a top 12 QB, top 24 RB, top 36 WR, or top 12 TE at any point in their career. The data also allows us to see how many players have accomplished this feat more than once and it also identifies player break out seasons. In addition, the data identifies the impact of draft capital.

Since 2010 there has been a total of 703 skill positional players drafted; 107 QB, 191 RB, 278 WR, and 127 TE.

Typically, the best players go off the board early in the NFL draft but does that translate to fantasy success. In a heavy defensive draft, like we recently witnessed, it pushes these skilled players down the board. Some years the top 3 QB’s are drafted in the first round, some they are not drafted until the 2nd or later.

How do QB’s drafted in the first round measure up vs, QB’s drafted in the later rounds? Well, we are about to find out!

18 of the 107 drafted Quarterbacks record at least 1 hit season, 17% of all QB’s drafted, and only 8 have done it in more than one season. 6 achieved it in their rookie season; Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, RG3, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott.

When we dig a little deeper into these numbers and consider draft capital, we see the odds of hit QB’s become a little clearer, depending on where they were selected in the NFL draft.

24 of the 107 QB’s selected between 2010 & 2018 were first-round selections. Of those 24, 9 have recorded a hit season (38%). 4 of the 24 have done in more than one season (Cam, Luck, Blake Bortles, and Jared Goff), and 3 achieved a hit season as a rookie; Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and RG3). For those in Super-Flex leagues, there were an additional 8 QB’s that have recorded a top 24 season. The hit rate when considering the top 24 increases from 38% to 67%.

The 2nd round provides a smaller sample size than the first round as only 8 of the 107 quarterbacks selected, we taken in round 2. The hit percentage is similar to round 1 QB’s. 3 of the 8 recorded a hit season (Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, and Derek Carr). 1 QB has had multiple hit seasons and he did it in his rookie year (Andy Dalton). There was only 1 additional hit when factoring in the top 24 and that was Geno Smith. The hit rate when considering the top 24 increases from 38% to 50%.

In round 3 we start to see the impact of draft capital on the players potential for a hit season.