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Draft Pick Success Rate – RB
In episode 14 I discussed the Quarterback position and specifically the hit rate of those quarterbacks drafted between 2010-2018. Today we are going to talk about the Running Back position. First just a quick reminder for how I determine who is a hit. The results are based on a 12 team league with PPR scoring, 4 points per passing TDs. I identified the hit rate as any player that has achieved a top 12 QB, top 24 RB, top 36 WR, or top 12 TE at any point in their career.
The data I have compiled allows us to identify how many players have accomplished this feat, how many have done it in multiple seasons and those who achieved hit status in their rookie seasons. In addition, the data identifies the importance of draft capital.
Since 2010 there have been a total of 703 skill positional players drafted; 107 QB, 191 RB, 278 WR, and 127 TE.
Typically, the best players go off the board early in the NFL draft, but does that translate to fantasy success? In a heavy defensive and lineman filled early round draft like we recently witnessed, the offensive skill position players are pushed down the board into later rounds.
Some years the top RB’s are drafted in the first round, some they are not drafted until the 2nd or 3rd. How do RB’s drafted in the first round measure up vs, RB’s drafted in the later rounds? This data will help us determine that.
54 of the 191 drafted Running Backs record at least 1 hit season, 28% of all QB’s drafted. 21 of those 54 have done it in more than one season and 20 running backs achieved a hit season in their rookie season.
Nine of the 191 have averaged a RB1 season over the course of their careers. These numbers support my start-up draft strategy of being heavy on the WR and then use rookie drafts to go heavy RB to round out my rosters. When we break down these players by the round in which they were drafted, we see the odds of hit RB’s become a little clearer similar to the QB position.
Since 2010, 14 of the 191 drafted running backs have been 1st round selections. A whopping 11 of them have recorded at least 1 hit season (79%). Six of those 11 have done it on more than one occasion and seven recorded a hit season in their rookie season (50%).
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ – DECEMBER 30: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Saquon Barkley #26 of the New York Giants celebrates a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys on December 30, 2018 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Cowboys defeated the Giants 36-35. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Of the seven rookies that had hit seasons; Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffery, and Saquon Barkley, they have all had multiple hit seasons except for Trent Richardson and Saquon. I’d say its safe to say that Barkley accomplishes this again in his second season. These 7 RB’s all recorded RB1 rookie seasons.
The data also shows that of all the RB’s drafted in the 1st round, only Mark Ingram recorded a hit season after his 4th season in the league. Ingram had a nice little run in his 5th, 6th, and 7th seasons. Gurley and Melvin Gordon have the opportunity to add themselves to Mark Ingram this season, and I believe that both have the opportunity to deliver a top 24 RB season with ease. Regardless the data proves what I have been saying since joining RotoHeat.com, running backs have a very short shelf life in this league.
It makes sense that the highly drafted RB’s have an impact early in their careers, teams draft these players base on need and the RB position is the easiest position of the skilled position to acclimatize to th...
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By Sully's Two CentsIn episode 14 I discussed the Quarterback position and specifically the hit rate of those quarterbacks drafted between 2010-2018. Today we are going to talk about the Running Back position. First just a quick reminder for how I determine who is a hit. The results are based on a 12 team league with PPR scoring, 4 points per passing TDs. I identified the hit rate as any player that has achieved a top 12 QB, top 24 RB, top 36 WR, or top 12 TE at any point in their career.
The data I have compiled allows us to identify how many players have accomplished this feat, how many have done it in multiple seasons and those who achieved hit status in their rookie seasons. In addition, the data identifies the importance of draft capital.
Since 2010 there have been a total of 703 skill positional players drafted; 107 QB, 191 RB, 278 WR, and 127 TE.
Typically, the best players go off the board early in the NFL draft, but does that translate to fantasy success? In a heavy defensive and lineman filled early round draft like we recently witnessed, the offensive skill position players are pushed down the board into later rounds.
Some years the top RB’s are drafted in the first round, some they are not drafted until the 2nd or 3rd. How do RB’s drafted in the first round measure up vs, RB’s drafted in the later rounds? This data will help us determine that.
54 of the 191 drafted Running Backs record at least 1 hit season, 28% of all QB’s drafted. 21 of those 54 have done it in more than one season and 20 running backs achieved a hit season in their rookie season.
Nine of the 191 have averaged a RB1 season over the course of their careers. These numbers support my start-up draft strategy of being heavy on the WR and then use rookie drafts to go heavy RB to round out my rosters. When we break down these players by the round in which they were drafted, we see the odds of hit RB’s become a little clearer similar to the QB position.
Since 2010, 14 of the 191 drafted running backs have been 1st round selections. A whopping 11 of them have recorded at least 1 hit season (79%). Six of those 11 have done it on more than one occasion and seven recorded a hit season in their rookie season (50%).
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ – DECEMBER 30: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Saquon Barkley #26 of the New York Giants celebrates a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys on December 30, 2018 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Cowboys defeated the Giants 36-35. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Of the seven rookies that had hit seasons; Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffery, and Saquon Barkley, they have all had multiple hit seasons except for Trent Richardson and Saquon. I’d say its safe to say that Barkley accomplishes this again in his second season. These 7 RB’s all recorded RB1 rookie seasons.
The data also shows that of all the RB’s drafted in the 1st round, only Mark Ingram recorded a hit season after his 4th season in the league. Ingram had a nice little run in his 5th, 6th, and 7th seasons. Gurley and Melvin Gordon have the opportunity to add themselves to Mark Ingram this season, and I believe that both have the opportunity to deliver a top 24 RB season with ease. Regardless the data proves what I have been saying since joining RotoHeat.com, running backs have a very short shelf life in this league.
It makes sense that the highly drafted RB’s have an impact early in their careers, teams draft these players base on need and the RB position is the easiest position of the skilled position to acclimatize to th...