Summary: In this episode, Stephen Brown and Preston Alder discuss their predictions for the e-commerce landscape in 2026. They cover a range of topics including tariffs, interest rates, inflation, the rise of AI, the value economy, and the implications of a K-shaped economy. The conversation delves into the challenges and opportunities that e-commerce businesses will face, emphasizing the importance of execution excellence and inventory optimization. They also explore the potential risks associated with private equity in the current economic climate.

Key Takeaways

• Tariffs are likely at peak levels but will stay elevated long term.

• Sellers should budget assuming current tariff rates do not improve.

• Falling interest rates may not reduce ecommerce lending costs.

• Inflation pressure still threatens consumer spending power.

• Consumers continue spending, even under economic stress.

• AI tools are already reducing labor and service costs for operators.

• AI-driven commerce may reshape how customers discover products.

• Ad costs may rise, but better targeting can lower acquisition costs.

• Execution and operational discipline will matter more than size.

• Brands that fail to adapt may not survive the next cycle.

Chapters

00:00 Predicting the Future of E-commerce

02:13 Understanding Tariffs and Their Impact

04:59 Interest Rates and Their Implications

08:48 Inflation: The Consumer's Perspective

11:48 The Rise of AI in E-commerce

24:22 Navigating the Value Economy

30:08 The Importance of Brand Communication

32:24 AI and Employment Concerns

34:14 Emerging Channels in E-Commerce

37:14T he Future of Advertising

42:10 Winners and Losers in E-Commerce

46:05 The State of the US Economy

56:20 The Private Equity Bubble

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