Liberal PM Mark Carney’s victory shakes North American dairy trade. Can supply management survive Trump’s tariffs and Quebec’s political muscle? Mark Carney’s unexpected Liberal victory reshapes Canada’s dairy landscape amid escalating U.S. trade tensions. While pledging to protect supply management, the former banker faces pressure to modernize the sector as Quebec’s dairy lobby tightens its grip on policy decisions. The article reveals how 200-300% tariffs mask a $1B U.S. trade surplus in dairy, analyzes Carney’s $200M processing fund gamble, and warns of climate policy impacts on feed costs. With equipment tariffs squeezing robotics adoption and Quebec holding parliamentary leverage, Canadian dairy’s stability faces its greatest test since NAFTA renegotiations.

Key Takeaways:

• Supply management likely survives but faces innovation pressure from Carney’s processing investments
• Quebec’s 40% dairy output gives Bloc Québécois outsized policy control in minority government
• U.S. already enjoys 3:1 dairy trade surplus despite “protectionist” Canadian tariff rhetoric
• Climate policies could add $2-3/hl production costs without price supports
• Equipment tariffs delay robotic adoption, risking competitiveness vs EU dairy tech

Read the full article here https://www.thebullvine.com/politics/canadas-new-liberal-pm-carney-friend-or-foe-to-dairys-future/