Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Always think, never apply!, published by ProbablyGoodCouple on April 1, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum.

Summary

This is a summary of the post, but it's not like that matters to you as an overanxious job seeker because you'll just meticulously spend 3hrs reading the whole post several times.

Definitely spend too long thinking about the pros and cons of applying to every opportunity (e.g., all jobs, grants, degree programs, or internships). Assume the initial application will take you a lot of time, and they probably think you suck anyways, so you're probably just wasting everyone's time, so why bother?

If you somehow end up applying to stuff and have to choose whether to take it, you've already messed up, but we suggest multiple techniques to get you back on track to not actually making a decision in any reasonable amount of time.

Never apply to things!

If someone wants to test their fit for a given line of work or build their career capital, our key recommendation is to never apply to anything so that you never actually get a chance to test your fit. Remember that you're only a failure if you actually get rejected from a job offer, and you can always maintain a self-image of being successful if you just never apply to anything. Why shatter this self-image?

Rather than apply, just spin your wheels endlessly reading up on an area, doing independent projects, taking little courses, etc! These things can easily take years, and everyone else you'd be competing against has already spent approximately thirty years reading everything there is to read on every subject, so it's hopeless to apply to anything if you haven't already done this, so why bother?

Also, recall that applications are just black box processes where there will be absolutely no relevant learning about yourself or the wider world of opportunities. And if you're rejected once, that likely means you'll be rejected from everything, so you should just stop right there.

How many things should I apply to, and how much time should I spend thinking?

Our rough suggestion is to:

Apply for something like 0 opportunities per year when actively seeking work

Apply for something like 0 opportunities per year even when planning to not leave your current role

Since 0 of those 0 things might turn out, on further reflection, to be worth changing your plans for, and/or you might learn a lot from applying or be able to defer an offer

How do I decide between multiple options?

Let's say you do end up getting a job offer somehow, despite never applying to anything.

So now you're asking - how do you decide whether to take it? Or how to decide between multiple options?

At this point, more analysis will be needed, such as doing a PhD-level 150-page paper about whether or not to do a PhD.

First, we recommend interviewing at least 40 people and just asking them "What should I do?" with no additional detail. While interviewing these 40 people, it's often good to imagine their lives and what they would do in your situation. In fact, keep imagining their lives and just don't stop, so you no longer have to experience what it is like to be you. This is often better.

Throughout this process, you should track where your preferences go over time, and always oscillate between 51% and 49% at an exact average rate. Another key thing you can do here is ask your current boss to make the decision for you but when she says "but it's a life decision, you make this decision!", just quit on the spot.

Decision matrix

Some people suggest using a decision matrix here to clarify your options. We suggest creating such a matrix with different factors, but be sure to change the weight of different factors so that all your options achieve exactly the same score, and thus you can continue to agonize over your options endlessly.

Also when designing the decis...