Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Carlo: uncertainty analysis in Google Sheets, published by ProbabilityEnjoyer on March 18, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum.

I've been working on Carlo, a tool that lets you do uncertainty and sensitivity analysis with Google Sheets spreadsheets.

Please note Carlo is an (expensive) commercial product. The pricing is aimed at professionals making important decisions.

Some of the key features that set Carlo apart are:

Works with your existing Google Sheets calculations

Gold-standard sensitivity analysis

Our sensitivity analysis offers a true metric of variable importance: it can tell you what fraction of the output variance is due to each of the inputs and their interactions.

Unusually flexible input

Inputs can be given using novel, convenient probability distributions that flexibly match your beliefs.

Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org