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EA - Technological developments that could increase risks from nuclear weapons: A shallow review by MichaelA
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Technological developments that could increase risks from nuclear weapons: A shallow review, published by MichaelA on February 9, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum.
This is a blog post, not a research report, meaning it was produced relatively quickly and is not to Rethink Priorities' typical standards of substantiveness and careful checking for accuracy.
Summary
This post is a shallow exploration of some technological developments that might occur and might increase risks from nuclear weapons - especially existential risk or other risks to the long-term future. This is one of many questions relevant to how much to prioritize nuclear risk relative to other issues, what risks and interventions to prioritize within the nuclear risk area, and how that should change in future. But note that, due to time constraints, this post isn’t comprehensive and was less thoroughly researched and reviewed than we’d like.
For each potential development, we provide some very quick, rough guesses about how much and in what ways the development would affect the odds and consequences of nuclear conflict (“Importance”), the likelihood of the development in the coming decade or decades (“Likelihood/Closeness”), and how much and in what ways thoughtful altruistic actors could influence whether and how the technology is developed and used (“Steerability”).
These tentative bottom line beliefs are summarized in the table below:
Radiological weaponsPure fusion bombsHigh-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP)Neutron bombsAtomically precise manufacturing (APM)AI-assisted production/designOther developments in methods for production/design???Hypersonic missiles/glide vehiclesMore accurate nuclear weaponsLong-range conventional strike capabilitiesBetter detection of nuclear warhead platforms, launchers, and/or delivery vehiclesMissile defense systemsAdvances in AI capabilitiesCyberattack (or defense) capabilitiesAdvances in autonomous weaponsMore integration of AI with NC3 systemsAnti-satellite weapons (ASAT)“Space planes” and other (non-ASAT) space capabilities
Category
Technological Development
Importance
Likelihood / Closeness
Steer-ability
Bomb types and production methods
Medium
Medium/
High
Medium/
Low
Medium
Medium/
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium/
Low
Medium/
Low
Low
Medium/
Low
Medium
Methods for production and design
High
Low
Medium
Medium/
High
Medium/
Low
Medium
Delivery systems
Medium/Low
Medium/
High
Medium/
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium/
Low
Medium/Low
Medium/
High
Medium/
Low
Detection and defense
Medium/High
Medium/
High
Medium/
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium/
Low
AI and cyber
Medium/
High
Medium/
High
Medium
Medium/
High
Medium/
High
Medium
Medium
Medium/
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Non-nuclear warmaking advances
Medium/
Low
Medium
Medium/
Low
Medium/
Low
Medium
Medium/
Low
Note that:
Each “potential technological development” is really more like a somewhat wide area in which a variety of different types and levels of development could occur, which makes the ratings in the above table less meaningful and more ambiguous.
“Importance” is here assessed conditional on the development occurring, so will overstate the importance of thinking about or trying to steer unlikely developments.
In some cases (e.g, “More accurate nuclear weapons”), the “Importance” score accounts for potential risk-reducing effects as well.
“Likelihood/Closeness” is actually inelegantly collapsing together two different things, making our ratings of developments on that criterion less meaningful. E.g., one development could be moderately likely to occur quite soon and moderately likely to occur never, while another is very likely to occur in 15-25 years but not before then.
Some of the topics this post discusses involve or are adjacent to information hazards (especially attention hazards), as is the case with much other di...
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By The Nonlinear Fund
4.6
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Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Technological developments that could increase risks from nuclear weapons: A shallow review, published by MichaelA on February 9, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum.
This is a blog post, not a research report, meaning it was produced relatively quickly and is not to Rethink Priorities' typical standards of substantiveness and careful checking for accuracy.
Summary
This post is a shallow exploration of some technological developments that might occur and might increase risks from nuclear weapons - especially existential risk or other risks to the long-term future. This is one of many questions relevant to how much to prioritize nuclear risk relative to other issues, what risks and interventions to prioritize within the nuclear risk area, and how that should change in future. But note that, due to time constraints, this post isn’t comprehensive and was less thoroughly researched and reviewed than we’d like.
For each potential development, we provide some very quick, rough guesses about how much and in what ways the development would affect the odds and consequences of nuclear conflict (“Importance”), the likelihood of the development in the coming decade or decades (“Likelihood/Closeness”), and how much and in what ways thoughtful altruistic actors could influence whether and how the technology is developed and used (“Steerability”).
These tentative bottom line beliefs are summarized in the table below:
Radiological weaponsPure fusion bombsHigh-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP)Neutron bombsAtomically precise manufacturing (APM)AI-assisted production/designOther developments in methods for production/design???Hypersonic missiles/glide vehiclesMore accurate nuclear weaponsLong-range conventional strike capabilitiesBetter detection of nuclear warhead platforms, launchers, and/or delivery vehiclesMissile defense systemsAdvances in AI capabilitiesCyberattack (or defense) capabilitiesAdvances in autonomous weaponsMore integration of AI with NC3 systemsAnti-satellite weapons (ASAT)“Space planes” and other (non-ASAT) space capabilities
Category
Technological Development
Importance
Likelihood / Closeness
Steer-ability
Bomb types and production methods
Medium
Medium/
High
Medium/
Low
Medium
Medium/
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium/
Low
Medium/
Low
Low
Medium/
Low
Medium
Methods for production and design
High
Low
Medium
Medium/
High
Medium/
Low
Medium
Delivery systems
Medium/Low
Medium/
High
Medium/
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium/
Low
Medium/Low
Medium/
High
Medium/
Low
Detection and defense
Medium/High
Medium/
High
Medium/
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium/
Low
AI and cyber
Medium/
High
Medium/
High
Medium
Medium/
High
Medium/
High
Medium
Medium
Medium/
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Non-nuclear warmaking advances
Medium/
Low
Medium
Medium/
Low
Medium/
Low
Medium
Medium/
Low
Note that:
Each “potential technological development” is really more like a somewhat wide area in which a variety of different types and levels of development could occur, which makes the ratings in the above table less meaningful and more ambiguous.
“Importance” is here assessed conditional on the development occurring, so will overstate the importance of thinking about or trying to steer unlikely developments.
In some cases (e.g, “More accurate nuclear weapons”), the “Importance” score accounts for potential risk-reducing effects as well.
“Likelihood/Closeness” is actually inelegantly collapsing together two different things, making our ratings of developments on that criterion less meaningful. E.g., one development could be moderately likely to occur quite soon and moderately likely to occur never, while another is very likely to occur in 15-25 years but not before then.
Some of the topics this post discusses involve or are adjacent to information hazards (especially attention hazards), as is the case with much other di...