In this episode of Economy Made Simple, Shamubeel Eaqub breaks down what’s going on in the New Zealand economy - and what’s coming next. Are we still in a recession? Why has it affected people so differently? And what signs should we look for to know that a recovery is finally taking shape?

From global wars and rising oil prices to interest rates and job ads, Shamubeel gives a clear-eyed update on the forces shaping our economy right now, and what might lie ahead. This episode covers:

• Why this recession has been different - with fewer job losses, but more business pressure and closures
• The surprising resilience of the labour market (businesses holding onto workers) and how it could speed up the recovery
• Signs of stabilisation (and optimism) after a year of economic decline
• Why interest rates are expected to drive growth later this year
• The bright spot in the economy - the primary sector
• How wars, trade, inflation, migration and government spending cuts will continue to shape the outlook
• What to watch for next, including increase in job ads and lending activity

It’s a challenging time, but not without hope. Shamubeel shares why he’s cautiously optimistic about a stronger second half of 2025 - and what needs to happen for that to become reality.

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Disclaimer: This podcast contains personal opinions and is intended to provide educational information only. It doesn't relate to your particular financial situation or goals and is not financial advice or recommendations. Simplicity New Zealand Limited is the issuer of the Simplicity KiwiSaver scheme and investment funds. For product disclosure statements please visit Simplicity's website simplicity. kiwi.