Is Iran on the brink of collapse—or are we misreading the signals? In this episode of Threat & Theory, we break down one of the most misunderstood questions in geopolitics: why Iran is not yet at the tipping point, despite ongoing protests, internal repression, and rising regional tension. Drawing on intelligence frameworks rarely discussed in public, we explain what “late Phase Two” actually looks like, why crackdowns don’t automatically signal regime failure, and how Iran’s ideological structure makes compromise nearly impossible. We also examine how diplomacy and military posture are moving in parallel, how October 7th exposed cracks in Iran’s deterrence architecture, and why the most dangerous moments often come before obedience breaks—not after. Iran isn’t collapsing, but the scaffolding is under real stress, the off-ramps are narrowing, and for the first time, the tipping point is clearly visible.

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