By the time a crisis reaches the president’s desk, the “clean” options are gone. In this episode of Threat & Theory, Howard and Evan break down the Iran decision as three paths: (1) Washington sets objectives and owns escalation, (2) allies — especially Israel — inherit the choice and set the terms, or (3) strategic inaction, accepting the downstream costs of restraint.

They unpack why “Is this the moment?” depends on three clocks: the capability clock (forces in theater), the regime stress clock (internal pressure and fracture risk), and the sequencing clock (Israel’s timelines and red lines). The conversation also tackles the most dangerous failure — escalation that changes nothing — plus the moral tension between sovereignty, intervention, and whether restraint becomes complicity. Finally, they zoom out to the global layer: what this decision signals about enforcement in a multipolar world — and what China and Russia are learning by watching.

Threat & Theory cuts past headlines to examine pressure, power, intent, and the real-world logic behind national security decisions.

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