Description:

President Trump is back to shaking up the geopolitical map with a bid to buy Greenland, using a 10% tariff on eight European nations as his bargaining chip. It sounds like a headline from a different era, but asset markets are already reacting, and the U.S. is standing on the edge of a potential new trade war.

We’ll talk about:

• Why the U.S. is threatening a tariff hike to 25% on countries like Germany and France if a deal isn't reached.
• The "escalate to de-escalate" theory that suggests this is a negotiation tactic for Arctic resources rather than a literal land purchase.
• The "Anti-Coercion Instrument," the European Union’s legal "bazooka" that could retaliate by targeting U.S. tech giants and intellectual property.
• The base case prediction that a compromise on security presence will be reached before the February 1st deadline, avoiding a full economic crisis.

Keywords:

Donald Trump, Greenland, Tariffs, Trade War, Anti-Coercion Instrument, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Arctic Security, Geopolitics, European Union.