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Ep 19: Is the Belt in BRI starting to loosen?
Ep. 19. The Loosening Belt? May 14, 2021.
The Biden Admin picks up a couple of key recruits this weeks as Australia and TSMC/Taiwan both sign on to Team America. This follow on last week's string of good news -- from Europe's pulling away from the big China investment deal, and Japan moving closer to the US on defense. While Biden has been slowly, dully, steadilly building up a coalition in plain sight, no one seems to ask the question -- What does the coalition consider a win? What's the end game?
As the world (and the economy that lives there) becomes more dualistic, any gain for one side is a loss for the other. That may explain why China's week wasn't as great. They've pretty much lost Australia as an ally and the EU as an investment partner. The good news is that Covid diplomacy is working among developing markets. The bad news is that the wolf warriors have done their jobs a little too well. For the first time in a long time, China doesn't seem to have limitless choice of trading counterparty. It has already scared away most of the main players (Japan, Canada, Australia, Vietnam, Malaysia -- all have had bruising encounters with China is the past year).
And finally, HK is seeing a mass outflow of expats. Sure, it may sound hysterical at first -- but the trend is bad and the reasons are worse. AmCham polling says almost half of all expats would leave if they could -- mostly because of the new security laws put into place by Bj. This shouldn't come as a surprise --recall our own informal polling here at Globalism2 showed, HK has totally lost its appeal as an expat or finance center.
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By globalism2 / Andrew HupertEp. 19. The Loosening Belt? May 14, 2021.
The Biden Admin picks up a couple of key recruits this weeks as Australia and TSMC/Taiwan both sign on to Team America. This follow on last week's string of good news -- from Europe's pulling away from the big China investment deal, and Japan moving closer to the US on defense. While Biden has been slowly, dully, steadilly building up a coalition in plain sight, no one seems to ask the question -- What does the coalition consider a win? What's the end game?
As the world (and the economy that lives there) becomes more dualistic, any gain for one side is a loss for the other. That may explain why China's week wasn't as great. They've pretty much lost Australia as an ally and the EU as an investment partner. The good news is that Covid diplomacy is working among developing markets. The bad news is that the wolf warriors have done their jobs a little too well. For the first time in a long time, China doesn't seem to have limitless choice of trading counterparty. It has already scared away most of the main players (Japan, Canada, Australia, Vietnam, Malaysia -- all have had bruising encounters with China is the past year).
And finally, HK is seeing a mass outflow of expats. Sure, it may sound hysterical at first -- but the trend is bad and the reasons are worse. AmCham polling says almost half of all expats would leave if they could -- mostly because of the new security laws put into place by Bj. This shouldn't come as a surprise --recall our own informal polling here at Globalism2 showed, HK has totally lost its appeal as an expat or finance center.