The Days Ahead: Big earnings week. First look at Q1 GDP.
One Minute Summary: A quieter week on the economic front but what there was uninspiring. Housing starts were fine but most of the increase was in multi-family housing. Industrial production was up but flattered by energy and mining, which are 20% of the index. We saw new nominees for the four (!) open positions at the Fed. We like them so no drama there.
The S&P 500 was up for the week. Small company stocks, Emerging Markets and International all had a better week and all three are ahead of the S&P 500 year to date. The best market was the U.K. It’s by no means out of the Brexit problems but the stock market has a heavy 22% weighting to mining and commodities, which have been on a roll recently.
Earnings were positive. But the market has distinguished between “bad, good earnings” which would be better net income mostly due to lower taxes and “good, good earnings” which would be better because of margins or volume. In the first camp put Philip Morris and IBM (down 17% and 8%) and in the latter, Netflix and industrial supplier Grainger (both up around 6%). Generally, earnings are having a barn- storming quarter with companies showing 18% annual growth. The 10-Year Treasury rate rose to 2.95% but some of that is because of a heavy refunding week coming up. We don't expect it to continue to rise.
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