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Ep 67. Why school dismissal is the highest risk time for a shooting
Article: Afterschool Child Firearm Assaults: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis
Guests: Emma L. Gause, MS, MA & Jonathan Jay, DrPH, JD
Abstract:
Objective: Firearms are the leading cause of death among children in the United States with resources primarily dedicated to the prevention of school shootings. However, child firearm assault risk may surge during afterschool hours when children leave school and enter unsupervised and unstructured community spaces. We investigated child firearm injury risk at the afterschool transition in New York City (NYC).
Methods: Firearm assaults from the NYC Police Department and school calendars from NYC Public Schools were obtained for 2006-2023, excluding COVID years. We fit a difference-in-difference (DiD) analysis to investigate whether firearm injuries increased into the afterschool hours more on school days compared to non-school days. We subsequently fit a regression discontinuity design (RDD) model to assess whether firearm injuries increased abruptly at the transition to afterschool. We used the conventional 2pm threshold for defining the afterschool transition based on prior literature and used the 25th percentile of enrollment-weighted school dismissal times as a sensitivity analysis.
Results: 359 of 613 child firearm assault injuries recorded between 10am-6pm occurred on school days across the 2006-2023 study period (excluding COVID school-years). The DiD results fount that the risk of child firearm injury increased by 45% (RR:1.45, 95%CI: 0.95-2.20) after the 2pm afterschool transition on school days compared to non-school days, though the result was not statistically significant. The RDD model revealed there was also significant increase of 2.5 (0.49, 4.41) additional child firearm injuries at the 2pm threshold, an approximately 280% increase compared to the school-day average. Results using the dismissal threshold were positive but insignificant.
Other episodes discussed:
* Ep 29. Gun violence exposure on walkable routes to and from school
* Ep 38. Dr. Jens Ludwig explains his new book ‘Unforgiving Places’
David Riedman, PhD is the creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database, Chief Data Officer at a global risk management firm, and a tenure-track professor. Listen to my podcast—Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education & Security—or my recent interviews on Freakonomics Radio and the New England Journal of Medicine.
This is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Get full access to Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education, & Security at riedmanreport.substack.com/subscribe
View all episodes
By David Riedman, PhDArticle: Afterschool Child Firearm Assaults: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis
Guests: Emma L. Gause, MS, MA & Jonathan Jay, DrPH, JD
Abstract:
Objective: Firearms are the leading cause of death among children in the United States with resources primarily dedicated to the prevention of school shootings. However, child firearm assault risk may surge during afterschool hours when children leave school and enter unsupervised and unstructured community spaces. We investigated child firearm injury risk at the afterschool transition in New York City (NYC).
Methods: Firearm assaults from the NYC Police Department and school calendars from NYC Public Schools were obtained for 2006-2023, excluding COVID years. We fit a difference-in-difference (DiD) analysis to investigate whether firearm injuries increased into the afterschool hours more on school days compared to non-school days. We subsequently fit a regression discontinuity design (RDD) model to assess whether firearm injuries increased abruptly at the transition to afterschool. We used the conventional 2pm threshold for defining the afterschool transition based on prior literature and used the 25th percentile of enrollment-weighted school dismissal times as a sensitivity analysis.
Results: 359 of 613 child firearm assault injuries recorded between 10am-6pm occurred on school days across the 2006-2023 study period (excluding COVID school-years). The DiD results fount that the risk of child firearm injury increased by 45% (RR:1.45, 95%CI: 0.95-2.20) after the 2pm afterschool transition on school days compared to non-school days, though the result was not statistically significant. The RDD model revealed there was also significant increase of 2.5 (0.49, 4.41) additional child firearm injuries at the 2pm threshold, an approximately 280% increase compared to the school-day average. Results using the dismissal threshold were positive but insignificant.
Other episodes discussed:
* Ep 29. Gun violence exposure on walkable routes to and from school
* Ep 38. Dr. Jens Ludwig explains his new book ‘Unforgiving Places’
David Riedman, PhD is the creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database, Chief Data Officer at a global risk management firm, and a tenure-track professor. Listen to my podcast—Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education & Security—or my recent interviews on Freakonomics Radio and the New England Journal of Medicine.
This is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Get full access to Riedman Report: Risk, AI, Education, & Security at riedmanreport.substack.com/subscribe