Anyone hoping for a quiet week was disappointed. The market suffered a 3.5% two-day loss before recovering on Wednesday. For most investors, this year has not left much to be thankful for. Nearly all asset classes we know have weakened: gold, commodities, large cap, international, emerging, credit and event Treasuries. The S&P 500 is up for the year but by the thinnest of margins. There were no new problems last week nor were there any resolutions to the problems. We'll restate these because they're important and none really lend themselves to quick fixes:
China trade: all eyes on the G20. So far, no breakthrough
Peak earnings: companies may face higher wage bills or just decide not to expand
Economic slowdown: this week it was lower industrial production and soft, but not deteriorating, numbers in housing.
Fed rate hikes: no hint that the Fed is concerned about the weaker economy and will let up on rates
This week also saw another indicator that the Kabuki theatricals on trade are hitting home. Here’s a story about farm produce rotting because of collapsing Chinese demand. And here’s a chart showing declining Chinese import of manufacturing components and the decline of U.S. durable goods orders.
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