The Days Ahead: New jobs numbers. Unless it’s a shocker, the Fed will raise in December

One-Minute Summary: We never like markets when they depend on a single outcome or announcement. It makes for very nervous trading whenever you hear “markets are waiting on X for direction”. Last week it was Chair Powell on the outlook for rates and, of course, the President on whether there would be progress on trade talks with President Xi. That’s fine. The trade talks are front and center of any discussion about the direction of global trade and economic well-being. But just as these problems took many years to develop, they’re unlikely to be solved over a dinner. We can hope for some sort of delay on the January tariffs. Markets would like that. If it's “no deal”, we would expect risk assets to take a step down.

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