Smidgen of Proof

Ep.21 - The Most Dangerous Competency in Business


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Overconfidence doesn’t always look like arrogance. Sometimes, it shows up as experience, a strong track record, or a bulletproof roadmap.

In this episode, Christopher Donaleski breaks down how unchecked confidence can quietly derail even the best strategies. From a major U.S. retailer’s failed international expansion to research-backed patterns in executive decision-making, we explore how good intentions and proven success can still lead to costly outcomes.

You’ll learn:

  • Why overconfidence is often rewarded until it backfires

  • How feedback loops close too early in high-trust teams

  • What “confidence without validation” looks like in action

  • Three ways to prevent confidence from becoming a blind spot

This episode is a practical look at one of the most overlooked risks in leadership. Because when assumptions go unchallenged, the cost isn’t always immediate—but it’s often irreversible.

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Smidgen of ProofBy Christopher Donaleski

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