Recorded Nov 22, 2022

Kevin's links

• Current portfolio thoughts: FTX aftermath; Genesis / DCG $1B capital injection; 90% in BTC / ETH; beginning of the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle
• Content
  • Eric Voskuil’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Cryptoeconomics-Fundamental-Principles-Eric-Voskuil-ebook/dp/B08VJ1F9Q8
    • Also his talk here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMVcjQ_-mGo
    • Because Bitcoin membership is permissionless and therefore not fixed, there is always complete agreement, as implied by membership. In this model consensus refers to the size of the membership (economy), not a condition of agreement
  • Russell Napier on Hidden Forces: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWhGsWaXI7o
    • https://kevinhabits.com/russell-napiers-interesting-macro-views-what-does-it-tell-you-when-central-banks-speak-loudly-perhaps-that-theyre-not-carrying-a-big-stick-anymore/
    • I think we’ll see consumer price inflation settling into a range between 4 and 6%, a level that the gov't can get away with. Financial repression = stealing money from savers and old people slowly
  • https://datafinnovation.medium.com/3ac-dcg-amazing-coincidences-c14eec941c06
    • 3AC borrows BTC from Genesis as a lender with some small amount of collateral, passes this BTC to Genesis as a Authorized Participant to create GBTC shares. Genesis duly locks the BTC in the trust via Grayscale and returns shares; These shares are trading at a premium so this represents “free money” to 3AC. 3AC then pledges these shares back to Genesis for a USD loan. If the premium was large enough this loan is worth more than the BTC they borrowed at the beginning.
  • Reading lists:
    • https://twitter.com/nosleepjon
    • https://twitter.com/0xsmac/status/1593290199626301443 

George

• Current portfolio thoughts: CZ SBF twitter feud causing uncertainty in market; Dollar stabilising; market consolidating perhaps for ~3-9 months before up; 70% cash
• Content
  • Rumors about Alameda solvency from Coindesks article: https://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1587890966580658177
  • Alameda had $14.6 billion of assets as of June 30, according to a private document CoinDesk reviewed. However, much of it is the illiquid FTT token created by FTX... 
  • Nov 3, META announces Instagram will be building on Polygon, Elon acq of Twitter closes end of Oct, Doge pumps 2x
  • Nov 3, SG Minister Foreign affairs: ASEAN won’t take sides; wise to seek a balancing strategy:   https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1587900612708274176
  • This increasingly common perspective on marriage and consequences for society: https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1587445311060033536
  • Degenspartan strategy on next cycle: https://twitter.com/DegenSpartan/status/1587778408187977728