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Episode 0075 Prediction Markets
In this episode, the guys discuss the evolving world of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms allow users to bet on the outcomes of future events, ranging from Super Bowl performers to geopolitical shifts. While the hosts note that these markets provide a richer data signal than traditional polling by requiring participants to risk money, they also express concern over insider trading and the potential for market manipulation.
The conversation highlights the ethical complexities of profiting from “material non-public information” and the risks of incentivizing bad actors. Ultimately, the speakers reflect on the scary implications of these tools and emphasize the need for transparency and spiritual grounding in an increasingly speculative world.
Oh, and Caleb talks about how is getting old and officially got his AARP card. =)
Check out the episode on the podcast platform of your choice!
Special thanks to NPR’s Marketplace for the podcast clip!
Special thanks to NPR’s Marketplace for the podcast clip!
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By Caleb Brown, Christopher SpenceIn this episode, the guys discuss the evolving world of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms allow users to bet on the outcomes of future events, ranging from Super Bowl performers to geopolitical shifts. While the hosts note that these markets provide a richer data signal than traditional polling by requiring participants to risk money, they also express concern over insider trading and the potential for market manipulation.
The conversation highlights the ethical complexities of profiting from “material non-public information” and the risks of incentivizing bad actors. Ultimately, the speakers reflect on the scary implications of these tools and emphasize the need for transparency and spiritual grounding in an increasingly speculative world.
Oh, and Caleb talks about how is getting old and officially got his AARP card. =)
Check out the episode on the podcast platform of your choice!
Special thanks to NPR’s Marketplace for the podcast clip!
Special thanks to NPR’s Marketplace for the podcast clip!