AVoCADo GamesCast

Episode #109: Rage Against the Reducible Fraction

Listen Later

Featuring:
Merve
Lily Bones
QuinleyThorne
The Kappa

Editor:
The Kappa

Timestamps:
0:15 – Introduction
2:10 – What We Played Over the Holidays
38:30 – Nintendo Switch 2 Teaser
43:40 – Evaluating Our 2024 Predictions
51:25 – Our 2025 Predictions
1:18:15 – What We’re Looking Forward to
1:32:15 – The Delay Prediction Game: Last Year’s Results
1:41:00 – The Delay Prediction Game: This Year’s Contest
2:53:00 – Conclusion

Download Link: https://archive.org/details/avocadogamescast_ep109

Podcast header image from the upcoming Digimon Story Time Stranger, sourced from its Steam page. Header image uses font On Fire by Typefactoryco. Linkdump, predictions, and mathematical appendix (seriously) after the jump.

Introduction (0:15)
  • Steam store page for Indiana Jones and the Great Circle.
    • What We Played Over the Holidays (2:10)
    • Steam store page for Mortal Kombat 1.
    • Nintendo store page for Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door.
    • Steam store page for Sorry We’re Closed.
    • Steam store page for Misericorde Volume Two: White Wool & Snow.
    • Steam store page for We Know the Devil.
    • Steam store page for Heaven Will Be Mine.
      • Nintendo Switch 2 Teaser (38:30)

      First-look trailer for Nintendo Switch 2. (Source: Nintendo of America on YouTube)

      Evaluating Our 2024 Predictions (43:40)
      • Episode #99 of the AVoCADo GamesCast, “The Ribisi Spectrum.”
      • Wikipedia article on Marvel Games.
      • Correction: Only Marvel has a character named Mister Fantastic. Merve was thinking of the DC character Mister Terrific. (Source: Wikipedia)
      • Confirmation: Valkyria Chronicles III was the Valkyria Chronicles game that didn’t make it out of Japan. (Source: Wikipedia)
        • Our 2025 Predictions (51:25)
        • Merve’s first realistic prediction: Ubisoft will either be sold or go private this year.
        • Lily Bones’s first realistic prediction: Microsoft will publish more games on each of PS5 and Switch 2 than Sony will publish on PS5 and Nintendo will publish on Switch 2.
        • Correction: Sony actually released four first-party games in 2024. We missed MLB The Show 24. (My First Gran Turismo is just a demo for Gran Turismo 7 and therefore doesn’t count.) (Source: Wikipedia)
        • The Kappa’s first realistic prediction: Sony will begin licensing their IPs (including their biggest ones, like God of War and Uncharted) to third-party developers.
        • Quinley Thorne’s first realistic prediction: Atlus will announce an expanded re-release for Metaphor: ReFantazio that will add Catherina as a party member, make Glodell a “social link” (i.e. a Follower), and add more candidates for the throne, one of whom will be a Mary Sue pseudo love interest that will play an outsized role in the plot.
        • Merve’s second realistic prediction: Persona 6 will be announced at Summer Game Fest for 2026 release.
        • Lily Bones’s second realistic prediction: Both Marathon and Grand Theft Auto VI will be delayed.
        • The Kappa’s second realistic prediction: The Nintendo Switch 2 will initially flop and have a slow launch.
        • Quinley Thorne’s second realistic prediction: We will see a trend away from live service games.
        • Steam store page for Deadlock.
        • Merve’s long shot prediction: Media.Vision will put out either Valkyria Chronicles V or the next Digimon Story game this year. Both will eventually come to the Nintendo Switch 2, one within three months of the console’s launch. Clarification: Digimon Story Time Stranger had not yet been officially unveiled at the time of recording, and its developer had not yet been announced as Media.Vision; all that was known was that a new Digimon Story game was in development. (Source: Bandai Namco Entertainment America on YouTube)
        • Lily Bones’s long shot prediction: Indiana Jones and the Great Circle will keep its momentum and be a game of the year nominee at the end of 2025.
        • The Kappa’s long shot prediction: Game Pass everywhere.
        • Quinley Thorne’s long shot prediction: Hollow Knight: Silksong will come out.
        • Wikipedia article on Kentucky Route Zero.
        • Confirmation: Cooking Mama: Cookstar’s publisher, Planet Entertainment, claimed that the game would use blockchain technology, but it was not present in the final version of the game. (Source: Wikipedia)
          • What We’re Looking Forward to (1:18:15)
          • Steam store page for Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii.
          • Steam store page for Sid Meier’s Civilization VII.
          • Steam store page for Avowed.
          • Steam store page for Split Fiction.
          • Steam store page for Dead Letter Dept.
          • Steam store page for Atelier Yumia: The Alchemist of Memories & the Envisioned Land.
          • Steam store page for Clair Obscur: Expedition 33.
          • Wikipedia article on Pokémon Legends: Z-A.
          • Steam store page for Wanderstop.
          • Steam store page for Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves.
          • Steam store page for Pathologic 3.
          • Nintendo store page for Fantasy Life i: The Girl Who Steals Time.
          • Steam store page for the upcoming re-release of OFF.
          • Steam store page for Coffee Talk Tokyo.
          • Steam store page for Deltarune.
          • Wikipedia article on Death Stranding 2: On the Beach.
          • Steam store page for despelote.
          • Steam store page for Elden Ring Nightreign.
          • Steam store page for Metal Gear Solid Δ: Snake Eater.
          • Nintendo store page for Metroid Prime 4: Beyond.
          • Wikipedia article on Croc: Legend of the Gobbos.
          • Steam store page for South of Midnight.
          • Steam store page for Shadow Labyrinth.
          • Shacknews’s review of Ebenezer and the Invisible World.
          • Steam store page for OPUS: Prism Peak.
          • Steam store page for Strange Jigsaws.
          • Steam store page for MIO: Memories in Orbit.
          • Steam store page for Unbeatable.
          • Steam store page for Golf With Your Friends 2.
          • Steam store page for Lost Records: Bloom & Rage.
          • Steam store page for Tokyo Stories.
          • Steam store page for The Explorator.
            • The Delay Prediction Game: Last Year’s Results (1:32:15)
            • Episode #99 of the AVoCADo GamesCast, “The Ribisi Spectrum.”
            • Wikipedia article on scoring rules.
            • Clarification: Earthblade’s cancellation had not yet been announced at the time of recording. (Source: Gematsu)
            • Correction and clarification: Tarsier Studios’ Reanimal is a spiritual successor to the Little Nightmares series, but it has not yet been released. The acquisition of the of the studio by Embracer Group is indeed part of why Little Nightmares IP owner Bandai Namco put a different studio, Supermassive Games, in charge of developing Little Nightmares III. (Sources: Wikipedia)
            • Wikipedia article on the von Mises distribution.
              • The Delay Prediction Game: This Year’s Contest (1:41:00)
              • Clarification: Clair Obscur: Expedition 33’s release date of April 24th, 2025 had not yet been announced at the time of recording. (Source: PlayStation on YouTube)
              • Clarification: Earthblade’s cancellation had not yet been announced at the time of recording. (Source: Gematsu)
              • A freaky creation from the Black Desert Online character creator. (Source: Rock Paper Shotgun)
              • Correction: The song featured in the trailers for DokeV is not a pre-existing song by Itzy, but rather an original song for the game called “Rockstar” by GALACTIKA and Luena. (Source: DokeV)
              • Music video for “APT.” by Rosé and Bruno Mars. (Source: ROSÉ on YouTube)
              • Wikipedia article on Cabbie Richards.
              • Correction: The world premiere trailer for John Carpenter’s Toxic Commando was at Summer Game Fest 2023, not The Game Awards 2023. (Source: thegameawards on YouTube)
              • Correction: Gameplay footage for John Carpenter’s Toxic Commando has been shown off. (Source: PlayStation on YouTube)
              • Wikipedia article on Fifth Third Bank.
              • Clarification: Ninja Gaiden 4 and Ninja Gaiden 2 Black had not yet been announced at the time of recording. (Sources: Xbox on YouTube)
              • Steam store page for Vampire: The Masquerade – Coteries of New York.

                • Full predictions list:

                GameThe Kappa’s Prediction (%)Quinley Thorne’s Prediction (%)Lily Bones’s Prediction (%)Merve’s Prediction (%)Trailer Source (on YouTube)2XKO28384055GameSpotAnno 117: Pax Romana90455085UbisoftBig Walk75806065House HouseClair Obscur: Expedition 331009510099PlayStationCoffee Talk Tokyo501009088Toge ProductionsCrimson Desert75824025Crimson DesertThe Dark Pictures Anthology: Directive 802080207580PlayStationDeath Stranding 2: On the Beach0113015PlayStationDispatch100505060thegameawardsDokeV0000GameSpotEarthblade84567080GameSpotElden Ring Nightreign618510095Bandai Namco Entertainment AmericaFable14655050GameSpotFBC: Firebreak80748090Remedy EntertainmentFive Laps at Freddy’s1001009985ClickteamLLCGhost of Yōtei723990100PlayStationGolf With Your Friends 2811009090Team17Grand Theft Auto VI1001005045Rockstar GamesHell Is Us81728065PlayStationHollow Knight: Silksong0050100XboxHotel Barcelona005055GematsuJohn Carpenter’s Toxic Commando75202535PlayStationLittle Nightmares III145280100BANDAI NAMCO EuropeMafia: The Old Country1805063PlayStationMarvel 1943: The Rise of Hydra10006565Marvel EntertainmentMetroid Prime 4: Beyond050100100Nintendo of AmericaMewgenics11805023Edmund McMillenMIO: Memories in Orbit0507575Nintendo of AmericaMixtape61706040XboxMonaco 21001004060GameSpotNinja Gaiden: Ragebound100768045Nintendo of AmericaThe Outer Worlds 21001008080Obsidian EntertainmentPenny Blood00010Penny BloodPokémon Legends: Z-A10036100100GameSpotProfessor Layton and the New World of Steam78506085LEVEL5ch【公式】Shadow Labyrinth10010010055Bandai Namco Entertainment AmericaShowa American Story0102060NEKCOM GamesThe Sinking City 280504040PlayStationVampire: The Masquerade – Bloodlines 205150Xbox
                Conclusion (2:53:00)

                No links here.

                Appendix: Why You Should Always Pick 0 or 100

                Let p be the probability that you think the game is going to come out. Let a be the guess you supply. Then your expected number of points is:

                p*a + (1-p)*(100-a)

                This can be rearranged as:

                (2p-1)*a + (1-p)*100

                Clearly, if p > ½, then this is maximized with a = 100, and if p < ½, then this is maximized with a = 0. If p = ½, then this reduces to ½*100 = 50, which does not depend on a, so any a ∈ [0,100] is optimal.

                ...more
                View all episodesView all episodes
                Download on the App Store
                AVoCADo GamesCastBy Merve, The Kappa, and friends
                • 5
                • 5
                • 5
                • 5
                • 5

                5

                3 ratings

                More shows like AVoCADo GamesCast

                View all
                Franchise Festival by Franchise Festival

                Franchise Festival

                9 Listeners