Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America.Today we're kicking off the week with the latest on multifamily and residential heading into 2026.

🔥 What's Hot:

• Supply Wave Peaking — 500K-600K units delivered in 2025; starts down 74% from 2021 peak
• 2026 Deliveries Drop 60% — Supply relief is coming fast
• Absorption Strong — Job growth driving demand; buy vs rent premium at 32%
• Rent Growth Positive — 2-3% in 2025; 3%+ projected for 2026
• Midwest & Coastal Outperforming — Columbus led permits (+1,288 YoY); NYC strong
• Investment Volume — $370-380B sales; cap rates stabilizing

• Vacancy Elevated — 4.9-8.2% nationally; peaked 7.2% November
• Sun Belt Oversupply — Austin, Phoenix, Nashville, Charlotte lagging recovery
• Concessions Common — New Class A hardest hit in high-supply markets
• Single-Family Cooling — Price growth just 0.2% quarterly

❄️ What's Not:

Takeaway: The supply wave is cresting, absorption is solid, and 2026 is shaping up to be a tighter market.

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