Welcome to Stewart Squared podcast with the two Stewart Alsops. In this episode, Stewart Alsop III and his father, Stewart Alsop II, take a deep dive into the early days of the internet, technology trends, and the nature of predictions with "skin in the game." Stewart Alsop II, who was at the forefront of tech journalism and venture capital, discusses pivotal moments like the rise of personal computing, early AI predictions, and the development of the Internet. His insights highlight the intersections of technology, business, and regulation.

Check out this GPT we trained on the conversation!

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction: Predicting the Future with Skin in the Game

02:03 The Evolution of AI and Natural Language Processing

05:11 Early Predictions and the Birth of Personal Computing

07:46 The Rise of the Internet and Digital Archiving Challenges

13:32 The Advent of Web Browsers and the Public Internet

24:41 The Open Internet vs. Proprietary Systems

32:29 Historical Reflections: From the Great Depression to Modern Times

35:32 Conclusion: Crazy Wisdom in a Changing World

Key Insights

1. The Role of Predictions in Technology: Stewart Alsop II highlights the importance of making predictions with "skin in the game," meaning that people who make bold claims about the future should be held accountable for their accuracy. This approach separates serious futurists from those making superficial or unsupported predictions, especially in areas like AI and emerging technologies.
2. Early Days of Personal Computing: Stewart Alsop II was deeply involved in tech journalism during the rise of personal computing in the 1980s. He noted how the technology was considered niche at first, with only a small community recognizing its potential. His work through Inc. magazine and later through his own conference, "Agenda," helped highlight which innovations were likely to shape the future.
3. The Internet’s Transition to Commercial Use: The episode covers how the internet started as a non-commercial network, connecting academic institutions and government entities like DARPA. It wasn’t until the mid-1990s, particularly with the passage of the 1996 Telecommunications Act, that the internet was opened to commercial activities, allowing businesses to capitalize on its potential.
4. The Birth of Google and Search Algorithms: Stewart Alsop II connects the rise of Google to the early days of Stanford University’s network. Google’s initial success came from its focus on academic institutions and using link-based algorithms to determine the relevance of search results. This methodology, known as PageRank, quickly made Google the dominant search engine as the public internet grew.
5. Challenges for Traditional Media in the Internet Age: Traditional publishers, such as Time Inc. with its Pathfinder project, struggled to adapt to the internet. Stewart Alsop II reflects on how many large media companies failed to understand the potential of the internet, leading to unsuccessful attempts to integrate digital strategies with their existing business models.
6. The Impact of Regulation on Internet Growth: The episode discusses the critical role of U.S. regulations, particularly the 1996 Telecommunications Act, which helped foster the growth of an open, commercial internet. This act set the groundwork for the internet’s expansion into the consumer market, shaping the future of global connectivity and competition in the tech industry.
7. China’s Contrasting Approach to the Internet: A significant insight from the episode is the contrast between the U.S. open internet model and China’s heavily regulated, controlled internet infrastructure. This difference has led to diverging paths in technology development, with China focusing on centralized control while the U.S. internet fostered more open innovation and competition.