If you want to be a successful investor, then naturally you need to take a position on future events. Yet making predictions is difficult, especially when they are about the future!Some of the points we cover in this episode include:-The history of some very wrong predictions-The problem with ‘expert predictions’ on the economy and markets-Prediction biases: recency bias and priming-How can you be a better predictor?-Can the crowd ever be wise? -The Superinvestors of Graham and DoddsvilleBooks mentioned:The Wisdom of Crowds, James SurowieckiSuperforecasting: The Art of Science of Prediction, Philip TetlockThinking Fast and Slow, Daniel KahnemanThe Base Rate Book: Integrating the Past to Better Anticipate the Future, Michael Mauboussin The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas TalebThe Superinvestors or Graham and Doddsville, Warren Buffett, Hermes Magazine, Columbia Business SchoolThanks for listening!Download a free chapter from our book ’Low Rates, High Returns’https://www.lowrateshighreturns.com/podcastPete Wargenthttps://www.petewargent.com/https://www.linkedin.com/in/pete-wargent-37228322/Stephen Moriartyhttps://twitter.com/SGM63

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