Episode 19: Lean Demand Forecasting

Guest: Dan Barrett

Dan Barrett, QueBIT’s Advanced Analytics Technical Sales Manager, claims that MOST companies waste far too much time on demand forecasting!

Considering how crucial an accurate demand forecast is to planning your supply chain, this is a bold statement. Keep in mind that Dan is NOT saying that you don’t need a demand forecast: of course you do! The problem he wants to address is accuracy, and his point is that more people spending more time on it does not typically result in a commensurate increase in accuracy.

In this episode, Dan explains what he means by Lean Demand Forecasting, and how measuring a metric called Forecast Value Add that compares your forecast to actuals on a continuous basis is an important tool for real forecast accuracy improvement. We compare different approaches to demand forecasting, including when a naïve approach is good enough, and when building a predictive model becomes valuable.