Welcome to Stewart Squared podcast with the two Stewart Alsops. In this episode, we explore the concept of the Third Convergence, a period from 2025 to 2045 where the digital and physical worlds become indistinguishable, creating what Stewart Alsop Jr. calls the "reality disturbance field". Building on the First Convergence (the rise of personal computing and digital media) and the Second Convergence (the networked internet revolution), this new era promises profound shifts in technology, human behavior, and society. We discuss augmented reality, artificial intelligence, and the implications of immersive digital experiences, touching on everything from Pokemon Go to the Apple Vision Pro. The conversation also covers the challenges of navigating an increasingly complex digital landscape, the role of venture investment in this transformation, and how historical predictions shape our understanding of the future. If you’re curious about the foundational ideas behind this discussion, check out our previous episode on the First and Second Convergences.

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Timestamps

00:00 Introduction to the Stewart Squared Podcast

00:12 Exploring the Third Convergence

00:54 Historical Context of the First and Second Convergences

02:13 Predictions for the Third Convergence (2025-2045)

02:56 Reality Disturbance and Its Implications

03:38 The Spectrum of Technology Adoption

04:16 Netflix and the Second Convergence

07:53 Amish Technology Use

10:42 The Impact of Pokemon Go

18:53 Navigating the Real World Before Digital Maps

22:33 Challenges with Modern Calendars and Time Zones

26:22 Feature Creep in Tech Giants

27:19 Simplicity vs. Feature Creep

29:15 Reality Disturbance and the Internet

30:54 AR Glasses and Reality Disturbance

32:04 Generative AI in Filmmaking

33:17 Psychedelics and Reality Disturbance

38:42 The Singularity and Its Impact

41:52 Predictions and Venture Investing

49:02 Elon Musk and Investment Regrets

Key Insights

1. The Third Convergence and Reality Disturbance – The episode introduces the concept of the Third Convergence, a period from 2025 to 2045 where digital and physical realities blend to the point of being indistinguishable. This transformation is expected to create new ways of interacting with technology, media, and each other, raising fundamental questions about perception, identity, and societal adaptation.
2. Historical Convergences and Their Impact – The discussion outlines the First Convergence (1979–2010), where personal computing and digital media reshaped publishing and broadcasting, and the Second Convergence (2010–present), where the internet networked everything, leading to cloud computing and social media. These past transitions help frame the scale and inevitability of the upcoming Third Convergence.
3. The Role of Augmented Reality in Future Disruption – Augmented reality (AR) is seen as a key driver of the Third Convergence, enabling digital overlays in everyday life through devices like AR glasses. While virtual reality (VR) immerses users in fully digital environments, AR integrates digital elements into real-world settings, making technology less obtrusive and more seamlessly woven into daily life.
4. Technology Adoption and the Amish as a Control Group – A fascinating comparison is made between the Amish, who selectively adopt technology, and the broader spectrum of society that rapidly integrates new advancements. This spectrum—from tech minimalists to full adopters—illustrates how different groups will engage with reality disturbance, with some resisting it entirely while others fully embrace immersive digital experiences.
5. Investment Strategies in Emerging Technologies – The conversation highlights the importance of identifying signals of technological inflection points rather than attempting to predict the distant future. Instead of betting on speculative concepts, successful investors look for early indicators of inevitable trends, much like how early streaming technology signaled the rise of Netflix.
6. The Singularity and Unpredictability of Innovation – While the singularity—the idea that technological progress will reach a point of irreversible acceleration—remains debated, the episode discusses how history shows that disruptive innovations often emerge unpredictably. The example of Twitch evolving from Justin.tv into a billion-dollar gaming platform illustrates how even those closest to an innovation may struggle to foresee its true trajectory.
7. The Complexity Paradox in Modern Technology – As technology advances, rather than simplifying life, it often introduces new layers of complexity. The discussion on digital calendars, time zones, and user interfaces underscores how feature creep can make basic tasks more frustrating, raising concerns about how reality disturbance might further complicate human interactions instead of making them more intuitive.