Human beings, as Dan Ariely wrote, are predictably irrational - and yes, that includes enrollment managers. From recruitment event feedback forms (good to meet you sampling bias), to predictive models (hello false causality), and all those early deposit incentives that only seem to encourage enrollment melt (good day Cobra Effect). If you have ever said this of your favorite slumping athlete: "(s)he's due," then you might be human, and thus subject to data fallacies. In this episode of The Weightlist, Thom and Brad list the 4 biggest data fallacies in enrollment management and how to avoid them. Along the way of course is beer and all the reasons you'll ever need to eat that dessert first.

 

Beers:

Thom: Cervecería Cuauhtémoc Moctezuma S.A. de C.V., Monterrey, Nuevo León, Mexico, Carta Blanco, https://untappd.com/b/cerveceria-cuauhtemoc-moctezuma-heineken-carta-blanca/3561 

Brad: Utepils Brewing Company, Minneapolis, MN, utepilsbrewing.com, Copacetic Kölsch, https://untappd.com/b/utepils-brewing-co-copacetic/1896248 

 

References:

Stanford marshmallow experiment; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_marshmallow_experiment 

Softening Claims of the Marshmallow Test, Inside Higher Ed; https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2018/06/06/new-findings-cast-doubt-marshmallow-test-success-claims 

Data Fallacies the Avoid; https://www.geckoboard.com/assets/data-fallacies-to-avoid.pdf 

Haifa Israel Daycare Study: What Makes People Do What They Do?; http://freakonomics.com/2013/10/23/what-makes-people-do-what-they-do/ 

Regression Fallacy; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_fallacy 

McNamara Fallacy; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McNamara_fallacy 

https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/237/McNamara-Fallacy 

 

Music:

Artist: Revolution Void, http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Revolution_Void/

Track: Effects of Elevation, http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Revolution_Void/Increase_the_Dosage/revolution_void_-_04_-_effects_of_elevation

Used under Creative Commons Attribution License, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/, No revisions made.