Welcome back to What's Hot & What's Not CRE — your daily pulse on commercial real estate in America. It's Wednesday, January 28th, 2026. Today we're tracking the 10-year Treasury and what it signals for CRE deal flow. 

🔥 What's Hot — Rate Stability Unlocking Capital: 10-Year Treasury at 4.22-4.25% this week — the stability zone unlocking deal flow Fed holding steady at 3.5-3.75%; markets pricing 45% odds of June cut; two total cuts expected in 2026 CRE transaction volume projected to increase 15-20%; institutional and cross-border capital re-entering Cap rate spreads attractive at 2.29% average (2021-2026) — better than long-term average of 2.15% Sale-leaseback activity benefiting from Treasury stability 

❄️ What's Not — Inflation Sticky, Cuts Uncertain: Inflation still above Fed's 2% target — limiting aggressive cuts J.P. Morgan no longer expects January cut; some forecasts show Fed on hold through all 2026 2021-2022 vintage floating rate debt still creating distress Office cap rates most sensitive: 78 bps move per 100 bps Treasury change; industrial most insulated at 41 bps 

📊 Why It Matters: The 10-year at 4.22% with stability is the key signal. Absolute level matters less than predictability. Transaction volume rising 15-20% signals confidence returning. But sticky inflation means fewer cuts than hoped. 

💡 Investor Takeaway: Treasury stability is more important than Treasury level. At 4.22%, the math works for well-located assets with strong cash flow. Industrial and multifamily most insulated. Office and retail most exposed. Expect two cuts in 2026, but don't bank on more. 

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